Liverpool vs. Chelsea Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Carabao Cup Match
Not all Carabao Cup ties are created equal, but as we head into the Fourth Round, most of the teams left are indeed Premier League sides. My Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction looks to take advantage of a Blues defense that has been struggling to start the year.
Liverpool is a +110 favorite on the three-way moneyline, with Chelsea at +187 and the draw at +290. Play from Anfield in Liverpool gets underway at 4 p.m. ET, airing on Paramount+.
No matter what the losing sides' fans say when the dust settles (be prepared to hear plenty about how it's a Mickey Mouse Cup), this is one of the best pathways to glory for both of these squads.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool moneyline | +110 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 1.1 units |
| Liverpool Over 1.5 goals | -138 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 0.73 units |
| Chelsea Under 4.5 shots on target | -120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Liverpool vs. Chelsea best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Liverpool moneyline (+110 via bet365)
Liverpool has won five of six across all competitions (their only loss came to Man City after a red card) and enters on a four-game win streak. Rotation, of course, will be the underlying factor in how this translates to the EFL Cup, but it supports backing a competitive match.
The Reds' press (9.9 PPDA, fourth in the Prem) will break up Chelsea's buildup and attack, then exploit the space before the defense can regain shape and settle. Taking advantage of openings by attacking quickly after turnovers is the path to victory. Chelsea, for their part, will also face the same rotation questions, while also missing Cole Palmer due to suspension and Joao Pedro due to injury.
It's a recipe for disaster: the lesser roster, worse form, worse defense, and on the road. Getting the Reds at plus money is a very appealing offer.
Play to: I'm happy with the home side here as far down as +100, but would pass after that point.
📡 SBR Edge - The missing player impact
Liverpool has been navigating an injury crisis of sorts all season, but if anything that should limit the potential rotation on Wednesday.
Chelsea miss Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro. Palmer ranks third on the team in xG and leads the way in carries (15.02 per 90) and is second in progressive carries (8.86 per 90). His three assists are tied for the team lead. Pedro leads the team with five goals and is first in xG, and he's tied with Palmer for three assists.
Those aren't the types of absences you simply refill from the bench.
More Liverpool vs. Chelsea expert picks
Liverpool Over 1.5 goals (-138 via bet365)
I'm looking back at Chelsea's last Carabao game (against Leeds) for the basis of this one. Despite picking up a comfortable victory (with six goals), the Blues gave up three, with Leeds piling up 18 shots and 36 box touches. It shows the rotated side was allowing Leeds repeatedly into threatening positions rather than simply relying on long-range, speculative shooting. And, notably, it wasn't a case of chasing (despite the 6-3 loss): Chelsea didn't score until the second half, and were already trailing 2-0 when they found their first. When the dust settled, Leeds had the xG edge.
Liverpool should be able to take advantage of a (presumably) rotated backline that might not have the same type of communication and positioning as the normal starting XI. Selection will matter here, but given Liverpool is already dealing with numerous injuries up front it might not be a heavily rotated attack.
We don't need excessive volume here, but the Reds should be able to breach the defense and get shots on target throughout. Chelsea's 5.63 SOT allowed/game is tied for the worst mark in the league.
Play to: I'm comfortable with this one to -145
Chelsea Under 4.5 shots on target (-120 via bet365)
Liverpool has one of the stingiest defenses in the Prem, despite that there has been so much overhaul there. They've allowed only 3.13 SOT/game and don't allow a lot of action in the box around goal.
Palmer's suspension for this one just helps things along. Liverpool is already excellent at restricting central combinations, and without Palmer, Chelsea will be steered further into wide areas and struggle to produce clean shooting opportunities.
The rotation is the big question here, hence why I'm only backing this with a half-unit play.
Play to: -125 only.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Liverpool | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3-1 | 4-1-3 |
| Home/Away Record | 1-2-1 | 2-0-2 |
| Recent form (all comps) | WLWWWW | WDLWWL |
| Goals for | 11 | 17 |
| xG | 12.12 | 10.33 |
| Goals against | 8 | 15 |
| xGA | 9.61 | 11.37 |
| Average possession | 53.2% | 46.4% |
Liverpool vs. Chelsea odds
Odds from bet365 as of Oct. 27; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: Liverpool (+100) | Draw (+290) | Chelsea (+187)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-211) | Under 2.5 (+160)
Liverpool vs. Chelsea projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Liverpool vs. Chelsea; subject to change:
| Liverpool (4-2-3-1) | Chelsea (3-4-2-1) |
|---|---|
| Mamardashvili (GK) | Penders (GK) |
| Aarujo (D) | Acheampong (D) |
| Jaquet (D) | Colwill (D) |
| Van Dijk (D) | Fofana (D) |
| Kerkez (D) | Gusto (M) |
| Mac Allister (M) | Lavia (M) |
| Gravenberch (M) | Caicedo (M) |
| Ngumoha (M) | Palestra (M) |
| Nyoni (M) | Rogers (M) |
| Barcola (M) | Estevao (M) |
| Isak (F) | Welbeck (F) |
Liverpool vs. Chelsea injuries
Liverpool:
<>- Bradley (knee) - out
- Frimpong (hamstring) - out
- Szoboszlai (hamstring) - out
- Ekitike (Achilles) - out
- Munoz (knee) - doubtful
- Wirtz (ankle) - questionable
Chelsea:
- Chavarria (undisclosed) - doubtful
- Joao Pedro (thigh) - out
- Reece James (knee) - out
- Martinez (jaw) - out
- Gittens (ankle) - out
- Palmer - suspended
How to watch Liverpool vs. Chelsea
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 28
- Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Anfield (Liverpool, England)
- TV/Streaming: [TV network]
Related Articles
