⚽ France vs. Morocco Prediction: World Cup Picks & Best Bets (July 9)
Morocco is all that stands between France and a spot in the 2026 World Cup semifinals. Although the African nation will be motivated to avenge its loss to Les Bleus in the 2022 World Cup semifinals, my France vs. Morocco prediction expects France to win Thursday's quarterfinal at Gillette Stadium in Boston.
Morocco enters the match (4 p.m. ET on FOX, FOX One, and Telemundo) as the +550 underdog against a France team (-175) that's arguably been the most dominant team at the 2026 World Cup. As part of our World Cup best bets, we break down why this is going to be a low-scoring affair.
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⚽ France vs. Morocco predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks across the best World Cup betting sites.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| France ML | -175 via bet365 | 1.25u -> 0.71u |
| Both teams to score: No | -125 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 0.6u |
| Under 2.5 goals | -111 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.35u |
| Kylian Mbappe to score anytime | -130 via DraftKings | 0.5u -> 0.38u |
⚽ Who will win France vs. Morocco?
This match is France's to lose.
After a dominant run to the Round of 16, France faced its toughest test against a Paraguay side renowned for its defending, which repeatedly tried to get under the skin of players like Kylian Mbappe. World Cup favorite France eventually prevailed, winning 1-0 and earning valuable experience ahead of a clash against a Morocco side that might take a page out of Paraguay's playbook and frustrate the French.
However, there's too much talent to keep this French squad off the score sheet. With 14 goals in five games so far, we're backing France's fluid attacking style to overwhelm Morocco en route to a narrow victory. While Morocco is a counter-attacking threat, France should control possession and comfortably deal with whatever attacking threats come from the Atlas Lions.
Score prediction: France 2, Morocco 0
💵 My best bet: Under 2.5 total goals (-111)
Nerves will be high on both sides of the pitch, as we expect this to be a tight match where both teams will be desperate to avoid mistakes that could end their World Cup dreams. Although France has one of the fiercest attacks at the World Cup, this game is poised to produce less than 2.5 total goals thanks to Morocco's organized defending.
Morocco is going to struggle in attack if Ismael Saibari is unable to overcome a thigh injury. Meanwhile, France coach Didier Deschamps has previously preferred to employ a pragmatic approach when his team reaches the latter stages of major tournaments.
🦶 Who will score in France vs. Morocco?
Follow all of our expert soccer betting analysis for the 2026 World Cup.
Kylian Mbappe, F, France (-130)
After trying to be cute by picking players not named Kylian Mbappe for my last two articles on France, it's time to admit defeat and go all-in on the Real Madrid superstar to carry Les Bleus into the semifinals. Mbappe scored three goals over those two games while my bets were losing. Epic fail.
But now it's time for redemption. Expect him to add to his goal haul on Thursday as the focal point in a French attack that's expected to have plenty of scoring opportunities against Morocco's deep-lying defense. While he's a threat to score from anywhere in the final third, Mbappe also has the edge over other French attackers as the team's designated penalty taker.
Mbappe is in the midst of a memorable World Cup campaign in which he's scored seven goals in five games, one goal behind the eight that won him the Golden Boot award in 2022. He's second in this year's race behind leader Lionel Messi, who has eight goals.
Best France vs. Morocco goal-scorer pick: Kylian Mbappe (-130 via DraftKings)
🥅 Will both teams score in France vs. Morocco?
The odds were already stacked against Morocco, but now the task of upsetting France appears to be even more difficult with news that Ismael Saibari could miss Thursday's game with a hamstring injury that he suffered in the Round of 16 against Canada. It's a brutal blow, considering that Saibari was the spark in Morocco's attack after scoring in all three group stage games.
Without him, Morocco is going to have a difficult time breaking down a French defense that's kept two consecutive clean sheets in the knockout round. Morocco is going to start defensively, but will be forced to attack when France scores, which could expose weaknesses in defense when they push up the field in search of a goal.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: No (-125 via bet365)
💡 How to bet on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to bet BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop betting market across more than 7,000 matches.
📊 France vs. Morocco odds
We're tracking the latest World Cup odds and favorites to win this year's tournament.
📺 How to watch France vs. Morocco
- Date: Thursday, July 9
- Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Boston)
- TV: FOX, FOX One, Telemundo
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