Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions: Can Pittsburgh Upset Toronto on the Road?
Both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs have run into difficulties early in the NHL season. They'll face off in Toronto in the Hall of Fame Game on Friday. Here are our NHL picks for Friday night’s game between the Penguins and Maple Leafs.
The Maple Leafs have already endured regular-season ups and downs. The Leafs are 3-0-2 over their past five games after it looked like the campaign might get away from them. They most recently lost in overtime against the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday.
It hasn't been a smooth ride for the Penguins either. They snapped a seven-game winless slide with a road win over the Washington Capitals on Wednesday.
Here are my NHL picks and predictions for Friday's Penguins-Maple Leafs game (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Game Info
Date: Friday Nov. 11, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+, TSN, ATTSN-Pittsburgh
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Odds
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Odds Analysis
The Maple Leafs opened as the consensus moneyline favorite while priced at -140. The odds have since shifted to -146 for Toronto. The Leafs are getting 64% of the tickets and 59% of the cash.
Even though 96% of the cash from early wagers is on the Over for 6.5, the opening price of -116 has shifted to -105 for both the Over and the Under.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Picks
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs ML Pick
Penguins (+130) ★★★
Pittsburgh's 5-6-2 record doesn't inspire confidence, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. The Penguins are controlling 56.7% of the score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals during five-on-five play, ranking fifth in the league. They're probably better than the team's record indicates.
Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs are 7-4-3. They're netting 52.7% of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted goals, which ranks 11th. That's above average and entirely fine, but not overly dominant. A Penguins team with better numbers can push Toronto.
Neither team has been performing to the best of its abilities in 2022-23, so take the Penguins at plus money.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs O/U Pick
Over 6.5 (-110) ★★★★
There have been seven-plus goals scored during Penguins games 13 times in 2022-23, and six of those outcomes have occurred with Tristan Jarry in goal. He's expected to get the start in Toronto on Friday. Pittsburgh is averaging 6.94 goals per 60 minutes, the league's seventh-highest rate.
Toronto isn't playing to such a high-scoring pace while averaging 5.52 goals per 60 minutes. However, the Maple Leafs have lost three games 4-3 in overtime with Erik Kallgren in net. They've also logged a 3-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on the road, and a 4-2 loss at home against the Arizona Coyotes.
Pittsburgh's tendency to play higher-scoring games will push this matchup toward the Over, along with Toronto's suspect goaltending.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Prop Pick
Crosby anytime goal (+190) ★★★★
Sidney Crosby has notched six goals over 13 games to start the season. He's also shooting the puck more, which should increase his chances to score.
Even though Crosby has been held to two shots on goal in three straight games, he's still averaging 3.08 shots on goal per outing. That's his highest per-game rate since 2016-2017.
With a bright spotlight and questionable goaltending in Toronto, there's a good chance Crosby finds the back of the net against the Maple Leafs. DraftKings and BetMGM are offering Crosby at +190, which is strong value relative to FanDuel (+154) and Caesars (+160).
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Penguins-Maple Leafs picks made 11/11/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
