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Florida Panthers right wing Vladimir Tarasenko scores on Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner as Gary Pearson offers his best prediction for the Game 4 Stanley Cup Final encounter.
Florida Panthers right wing Vladimir Tarasenko scores on Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner in the second period in Game 3 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place. Photo by Walter Tychnowicz via USA TODAY Sports

It's last-chance saloon for the Edmonton Oilers heading into Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday, but the home team will look to extend its series against the Florida Panthers as we dive into our best Panthers-Oilers Game 4 prediction based on the top NHL odds

The Florida Panthers have been remarkably opportunistic in the Stanley Cup Final against the Edmonton Oilers despite being outshot and outplayed in two of the three contests. They are now just one win away from securing their first Stanley Cup in franchise history and will have the chance to lift the trophy on Saturday at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, with the game starting at 8 p.m. ET (ABC).

The Oilers are favored to win Game 4 and extend the series, but the Panthers are the overwhelming favorites to win the series by the Stanley Cup odds.

Make sure to take a look at the best Panthers-Oilers Game 4 props and NHL picks

Panthers vs. Oilers Game 4 prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Over 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After all the lessons, heartbreaks and hardships en route to the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, the Edmonton Oilers are still the architects of their own demise. Just when you think they eradicated harebrained blunders from their repertoire, an inexplicable mistake, or two in the case of Game 3, scupper everything they've worked so hard to achieve.  

I can't conceive how maddening that must be for Connor McDavid, the only unfailing constant in Oil Country. Their propensity to give away goals more than Costco doles out free samples is one of the reasons I'm backing the Over in Game 4. 

Costly mistakes the difference in Game 3

Darnell Nurse. Need I say more? Probably not, but I will anyway. The Oilers' defenseman is nursing (sorry for the pun) an injury of some sort, but that doesn't excuse the volume of inexcusable mistakes that have led directly to Florida goals.

He coughed the puck up in the second period of Game 3, which Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett took full advantage of. Nurse was also on the ice for the first two Panthers goals in Game 1. He is minus-14 in the playoffs, the worst rating of all skaters and four inferior to second-worst Warren Foegele, who is playing down to the level of his McLovin nickname.

And then there's Stuart Skinner. He is not the reason the Oilers are down 0-3, but he certainly hasn't helped, nor has he stolen a game like his counterpart, Conn Smythe shoo-in Sergei Bobrovsky. Skinner attempted to play the puck behind the net but got caught out, not for the first time in these playoffs. 

Eetu Luostarinen picked his pocket and fed a grateful Vladimir Tarasenko. Those two goals were the backbreaker, deflating the team and depleting the crowd's feverish energy after they managed to level the encounter earlier in the second frame. 

Edmonton home games have more goals

Four of the last five and eight of 10 overall at Rogers Place in the playoffs had at least six goals. The 80% Over rate at home starkly contrasts their run of seven straight Unders on the road. 

The Oilers score 3.9 goals per game at Rogers Place and allow 3.10. Meanwhile, the Panthers score 3.33 goals per game in enemy rinks, allowing 2.33. The only game in the Western Conference Final in which the Under hit was Game 6. And that was due to Skinner stealing the game, which occurs more seldom than blizzards in Florida. 

Bobrovsky's save percentage against the Oilers is an astounding .953. He's looked every bit as good as those numbers suggest. However, that save percentage is unsustainable in the long run, so a minor regression may be forthcoming. 

We'll soon discover whether the Oilers self-belief evaporated after the Game 3 loss. Regardless, I expect goals in Game 4. If the Oilers are down by a goal or two in the third period, they'll have no choice but to be excessively aggressive, either opening the door on the counter or being forced to pull Skinner with enough time for the visitors to pot an empty-net goal or two. 

At +100, Betway's odds imply a 50% probability. A $10 winning bet pays a profit of $10 if it hits. 

Best odds: +100 via Betway

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Game 4 keys

Rogers Place in the playoffs
Goals per game (7.23)
Games Over 6.5 goals (7)
Games Over 5.5 goals (8)
Games Under 6.5 goals (3)
Games Under 5.5 goals (2)

In Game 3, the Oilers had 19 slot shots, 16 cycle chances, and 20 high-danger opportunities. They should score at least three goals with a repeat performance in Game 4. The Panthers were outplayed statistically but were more lethal and ruthless, scoring on 17.3% of their shots. 

In addition, the Oilers' power play is 0-for-10 in the Stanley Cup Final and can only be completely shut down for so long. They had several Grade A scoring chances with the man advantage in Game 3 but were stymied, yet again, by Bobrovsky. 

Panthers vs. Oilers Game 4 odds & info

  • When: Saturday, June 15
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
  • How to watch: ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Oilers (-120 via Betway)

Panthers-Oilers predictions made Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

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