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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Predictions & Odds: Today's Game 7 NHL Playoffs Expert Picks

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: May 4, 2024 5:53 PM EDT • 3 min 53 sec read.

Boston hosts Toronto on Saturday in Game 7 for the fourth consecutive series, as we offer our expert Maple Leafs-Bruins predictions using the best NHL odds for Saturday's sweaty-palm affair. 

Once again, the Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10) have battled back from a 3-1 series deficit to force Game 7 against the Boston Bruins (47-20-15). Will their fate differ the fourth time around?

The series has followed the 2018 script, and the final chapter of this year's showdown takes place on Saturday at TD Garden in Boston, with puck drop set for 8 p.m. ET. Despite seeing their two-game lead evaporate faster than water on a sizzling hot frying pan, the Bruins are the consensus favorites to win Game 7, according to our best sports betting apps.

Though they lengthened after the Game 6 loss, Boston's Stanley Cup odds are still shorter than Toronto's entering a do-or-die affair on Saturday.

Along with our Maple Leafs vs. Bruins player props, here are our best Maple Leafs vs. Bruins predictions and NHL pick (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Over/Under prediction for Saturday

Under 5.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you love going Under, like limbo enthusiasts worldwide, you'll adore this series.

A stiff cocktail of otherworldly goaltending, feeble offensive displays, players blocking shots like they're taking bullets for loved ones, and, to a lesser extent, no Auston Matthews, has led to four Unders in six contests.  

Had the Bruins not scored an empty-net goal in Games 1 and 3, we'd be looking at six consecutive Unders. That fits perfectly into the Maple Leafs' recent playoff trend. They've scored more than two goals only once in their last 13 playoff encounters, which came in Game 2, a comparatively prolific three-goal outburst. 

Their offensive woes can't be blamed on Matthews' absence. While he was the only reason they broke through the two-goal barrier in Game 2, Matthews played in each previous game, including an eight-game run without three goals. Nine of the last 13 Maple Leafs' playoff games hit the Under, which would increase to 12 of 13 if you exclude empty-netters. 

The Maple Leafs have the 5-on-5 advantage

The Bruins have just as much trouble lighting the lamp, a quandary exasperated by Joseph Woll's excellence. Six of the Bruins' 14 goals (I'm not including their two empty-net goals) in the series have come via the man advantage.  

It’s no wonder Sheldon Keefe has probably reintroduced corporal punishment to dissuade his players from taking penalties. The Maple Leafs took only one minor in each of the last two games, almost completely nullifying the Bruins’ main offensive threat. The Maple Leafs have outscored the Bruins 9-7 in five-on-five play since Game 2, which bodes well following Toronto's newfound discipline. 

Considering how much is on the line, expect a similar scenario to unfold in Boston on Saturday. Betway offers -120 for five goals or less, paying out $8.33 on a $10 winning bet.

Best odds: -120 via Betway

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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins moneyline prediction for Saturday

Maple Leafs ML ⭐⭐⭐

I'll start by first addressing my pick for Game 6, which backed the Bruins to win. When writing the Eastern Conference betting preview, I predicted this series to go the distance, yet I deviated for my Game 6 moneyline pick, veering away from my original pick and gut feeling. The decision was made primarily due to Swayman's jaw-dropping dominance over the Maple Leafs. And then Woll came along, living up to his namesake. I should have stuck with my original assessment. Lesson learned. 

Game 7s are the embodiment of a hockey crapshoot. The Bruins have the historical advantage when these two teams meet in winner-takes-all affairs, prevailing in 2013, 2018, and 2019. However, the Bruins lost at home to the Florida Panthers 4-3 in overtime in Game 7 of the first round last season and have endured the sour taste of defeat in their past three Game 7s.

Boston is 15-15 in Game 7s and 14-10 on home ice. Meanwhile, Toronto is 12-14, including a ghastly 5-11 mark in enemy rinks. Saturday is the pure, unadulterated epitome of a something-has-to-give scenario. 

Momentum comes and goes in the playoffs. The best teams ride the waves like the world's best surfers, showcasing resilience during the inevitable valleys and Travis Kelce-like swagger during peaks.

The Maple Leafs appear to be the fresher, more confident team. Forced to play a brand of defensive hockey they were previously repelled by, Keefe's team has embraced its new identity, wearing the Bruins down like the world's most effective coffee grinder. 

Best odds: +115 via Betway

The Maple Leafs' impressive record without Matthews

The Maple Leafs are 2-0 in the series and 26-12 without Matthews since the start of the 2018-19 season. Though the Maple Leafs will hope he's good to go, it shouldn't derail them if he isn't. 

And finally, the Bruins' -150 odds are far too short considering their recent play. Betway offers +115 odds for the Maple Leafs to win. They've won two of three in Boston thus far. A $10 winning bet pays a profit of $11.50 and has an implied probability of 46.51%. 

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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 7 info & odds

  • When: Saturday, May 4
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
  • How to watch: ESPN, ABC, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Bruins (-150 via Betway)

Bruins-Maple Leafs predictions made Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NHL betting sites:

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.