Hart Trophy Picks: Can Igor Shesterkin Win It As A Goalie?

Rare is the goaltender that can win the Hart Trophy as the NHL's Most Valuable Player but it is also rare for a goaltender to stop more than 94% of the shots that he faces. Here is a look at the Hart Trophy case for New York Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin.

New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin, 26, has established his place as the clear favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender. More recently, though, his name has started to gain traction as a viable candidate for the Hart Trophy, as league MVP.

Last season, Shesterkin started 31 of 56 games for the Blueshirts. His .916 save percentage was above average, but not amazing. He finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting as the league’s top rookie and did not receive any votes for the Vezina Trophy.

Hart Trophy Odds as of Feb. 28

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Lots of Shesterkin Value in Preseason

While expectations were still high for Shesterkin entering his second NHL season, he was priced at +2100 on FanDuel Sportsbook before the season started. That was behind nine other goaltenders.

We won’t pretend that this was a sure thing that Shesterkin would be the best goaltender in the league this season, but he clearly has been the best goaltender in the NHL, posting a .941 SV% in 34 games. It will be a shock if he does not win the Vezina. Prices for a Shesterkin Vezina win now range between -118 at FoxBet to -150 at PointsBet.

Shesterkin's save percentage relative to league average.

Considering that Igor Shesterkin was a contender but not a favorite for the Vezina coming into the season, he was not expected to be a major factor in the Hart Trophy race. Shesterkin was priced at +5000 on FanDuel before the start of the season. While those odds have steadily become shorter, there has been a dramatic shift recently. Shesterkin was available at +3000 less than two weeks ago on FanDuel and in the span of the past 12 days. That price has dropped to +1000 on FanDuel and as low as +700 on PointsBet.

Great Goaltending Seasons

In the past 50 years, there have been two seasons in which a goaltender logged a starter’s workload (ie. more than half of his team’s games) and finished with an SV% above .935. Dominik Hasek had a .937 SV% for the Buffalo Sabres in 1998-1999 and Tim Thomas posted a .938 SV% for the Boston Bruins in 2010-2011.

That’s some rare company for Shesterkin to keep. Hasek finished third in Hart Trophy voting that year, even though his numbers were every bit as strong as in each of the previous two seasons when he did win both the Vezina and Hart Trophy. Hasek was so much better than the competition at his position, played with few stars in Buffalo, and logged a heavy workload, playing in 67 and 72 games, respectively, during his Hart Trophy seasons. Under those circumstances, it was easy to make the case that Hasek’s performance was driving Buffalo to a playoff spot.

Shesterkin might be able to make a similar claim this season. While the New York Rangers do have star talent, including defenseman Adam Fox along with wingers Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and center Mika Zibanejad, it is Shesterkin that is driving the Rangers’ success. The Rangers are controlling just 45.1% of 5v5 score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts, which ranks 31st in the league. The Rangers are the only team currently in a playoff spot outside the top 20 in that measure. Yet they are still comfortably in playoff position, in large part because of great goaltending.

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While a goaltender can make an enormous difference in a team’s fortunes, that is not how voting for the Hart Trophy tends to play out.

Goaltenders Winning the Hart Trophy

In the past 50 years, in addition to Hasek, there have been two other goaltenders to claim the Hart Trophy; Carey Price and Jose Theodore, both of the Montreal Canadiens.

Price had a .933 SV% and won 44 games while playing 66 games in 2014-2015. He beat out Alex Ovechkin, who had 53 goals and 81 points in 81 games. One of the obvious paths to a goaltender winning the Hart Trophy is when there is not a forward with elite offensive production. It worked for Price when the highest scorer in the league (Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars) had 87 points.

In Theodore’s case, he led the league with a .931 SV% in 67 games and narrowly edged out Jarome Iginla, who led the league with 52 goals and 96 points. Iginla’s Calgary Flames missed the playoffs and Theodore’s Montreal Canadiens squeaked into the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. That was enough to make the difference.

While team success should not be a pre-requisite for an individual award, the prevailing sentiment is that a player can’t be the most valuable player if his team can’t make the playoffs. This could be the edge that Shesterkin needs this season. If the Edmonton Oilers were to miss the postseason that would presumably knock Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl out of the running. That would still leave Shesterkin matched against the likes of Auston Matthews, and Jonathan Huberdeau. Those players are not missing the playoffs.

Igor Shesterkin has only played 34 out of 53 games this season. If he started every game for the rest of the regular season that would put him at 63 games played. That won’t happen, so if he ends up with around 55 games played, it is even more difficult to find a path where he can win. All the other goaltenders to take home the Hart Trophy in the past 50 years have played at least 64 games.

Recommendation

There may have been some relative value to be had when Shesterkin was priced at +5000, or even +3000. However, it becomes a lot more difficult to justify him at current prices. He is having a fantastic season. But it is not consistent with other goaltenders that have won both Vezina and Hart Trophies in the same season.

Where to Bet on the Hart Trophy

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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