NHL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

The NHL trade deadline is just a day away, and Thursday's 10-game slate on the ice features multiple marquee matchups and mismatches. Here’s sports betting analyst Neil Parker’s top NHL picks based on the best NHL odds. 

There’s been roster upheaval across the league. Teams are seeking to improve their immediate and future fortunes ahead of Friday’s cutoff line, and the lineups multiple clubs will roll out Thursday barely resemble their squads from just two weeks ago.

The Boston Bruins, Dallas Stars and Los Angeles Kings are all monster favorites Thursday, while the industry's best sportsbooks peg the Seattle Kraken-Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs-Calgary Flames and St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks games as close contests.

While the off-ice news might be garnering top headlines, there are still plenty of playoff implications involved in the on-ice action Thursday.

Here are our best NHL picks for Thursday's schedule (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all our NHL picks.  

Thursday’s NHL schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

• Buffalo Sabres (+220) vs. Boston Bruins (-275)
• Ottawa Senators (+138) vs. New York Rangers (-166)
• Pittsburgh Penguins (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-170)
• Nashville Predators (+155) vs. Florida Panthers (-192)
• Seattle Kraken (-120) vs. Detroit Red Wings (+100)
• Dallas Stars (-255) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (+205)
• Toronto Maple Leafs (+100) vs. Calgary Flames (-120)
• Minnesota Wild (-164) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+136)
• Montreal Canadiens (+220) vs. Los Angeles Kings (-275)
• St. Louis Blues (+100) vs. San Jose Sharks (-120)

Thursday’s NHL best bets

• Regulation win: Panthers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Upset: Senators (+138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Regulation win: Wild (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: Joe Pavelski anytime goal (+235 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Thursday’s NHL top picks

Regulation win: Panthers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Predators topped the Panthers 7-3 on Feb. 18; here are the players who played for Nashville in that game but won’t be in the lineup Thursday:

• Mattias Ekholm (traded)
• Mikael Granlund (traded)
• Tanner Jeannot (traded)
• Nino Niederreiter (traded)
• Ryan Johansen (leg injury)

Top-scorer Filip Forsberg (upper body) remains out, and rookie winger Juuso Parssinen has also missed the past two games with an upper-body injury. That makes four impact players dealt away since the last meeting, and another three injured. 

Florida doesn’t have a clean bill of health, either. Centers Aleksander Barkov (hand) and Sam Bennett (lower body) have already been ruled out Thursday. 

Still, the Panthers are 16-9-3 on home ice and coming off a statement 4-1 road win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday. Florida is also lagging just three points back of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, whereas Nashville has folded its hand and is already looking ahead to next season.

I’d be more confident in Florida if either Barkov or Bennett were in the lineup, and as a result, I dropped this to a three-star recommendation. There's still a nice advantage presented by landing the best number, though.

Placing this wager through DraftKings offers a positive expected value of 8% compared to the -130 odds via Caesars.

Upset: Senators (+138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Ottawa has rolled off three consecutive wins to improve to an active 10-3-1 stretch, while New York is playing its second game in consecutive nights after eking out a 3-2 overtime win over the lowly Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday.

Additionally, there’s also been notable line movement here toward Ottawa. The Sens were trading at +150 Thursday morning, and I respect the action.

The Rangers will turn to backup Jaroslav Halak in net, and he sports a confidence-shattering .903 save percentage and 2.71 GAA across 54 games the past three years. Even with No. 1 tendy Igor Shersterkin’s ho-hum results this season, it’s still a considerable downgrade in goal for New York.

These teams have both posted middling five-on-five numbers in Corsi For percentage and expected goals for percentage when adjusted for score and venue. Ottawa, however, has a decided edge on special teams, ranking fourth in power-play percentage (25.4%) and sixth in penalty-kill percentage (82.7%); New York sits ninth (23.1%) and 17th (78.6%), respectively.

Additionally, both teams have bolstered their respective lineups ahead of Friday’s trade deadline, and I like Ottawa’s upset potential even more if blueliner Jakob Chychrun makes his Sens debut Thursday.  

When there were +150 odds available, I had this pegged as a three-star bet. Unfortunately, there’s already been notable line movement, and that dips it to a two-star nod. In fact, a lot of the value has disappeared, as the +138 price only presents a positive expected value of 6% over the +125 odds through BetMGM.

Check out sports betting analyst Neil Parker's outlook for the Rangers following the Patrick Kane trade.

Regulation win: Wild (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota is on an impressive 6-0-1 run despite a league-low 5.85 team shooting percentage at five-on-five. I’m envisioning statistical correction kicking in against Vancouver on Thursday.

The Canucks have surrendered the second-most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and sport a league-low 66.7% penalty-kill rate. No. 1 netminder Thatcher Demko also allowed four tallies on 38 shots in his return to action Monday, and he’s struggled to the tune of an .884 save percentage and 3.93 GAA through his 16 starts this season.

And it gets worse: Vancouver center J.T. Miller is out week-to-week with a lower-body injury, which leaves an already weak offensive attack all the more depleted. The Canucks are treading water with a 6-6-2 record under new bench boss Rick Tocchet, but they also have the eighth-worst goals for percentage at five-on-five during the stretch.

I expect the Wild to cash in on their pending improved puck luck while also playing a tidy game to limit the quality chances for the Canucks on Thursday.

There’s a positive expected value of 9% wagering on the Wild in regulation via DraftKings instead of paying the vig through Caesars. It’s enough of an edge for me to boost this grade from three to four stars. I’m confident in the Wild.

Prop: Joe Pavelski anytime goal (+235 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

It has been 17 games since Pavelski found the back of the net, an uncharacteristically prolonged cooler for the five-time 30-goal scorer. Pavelski has just five goals and a 4.9% shooting rate across his past 45 games, despite registering 15.8 individual expected goals and 81 individual high-danger scoring chances.

Pavelski skates on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit, and he also lands in a slump-busting matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday. The Hawks have surrendered the seventh-most goals and expected goals per 60 minutes this season, and they’ve unloaded multiple impact players ahead of Friday’s trade deadline.

I’m not overthinking this one with long odds available across our best sportsbooks. 

Even if it appears statistically as if it’s actually been harder for Pavelski to not score, goals are never easy to come by. I’m grading this as a three-star recommendation because there’s an advantage to landing the +235 odds through FanDuel. If the odds were similar it’d be a two-star nod.

Compared to the +195 number available through Caesars, we grab a positive expected value of 14% with the +235 via FanDuel.

NHL best bets made 3/2/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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