🏒 Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction & Odds | Game 5 NHL Picks for Thursday, May 14

The Buffalo Sabres return home for Game 5 today after leveling their playoff series against the Montreal Canadiens.

My Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction for Game 5 today includes a moneyline, a total, a player prop, plus a correct score bet at +1300 odds. The market is leaning toward the Sabres to defend home ice as a -120 betting favorite ahead of tonight’s 7 p.m. ET puck drop (TNT, truTV, HBO Max) from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., while the total sits at 6.

🏒 Canadiens vs. Sabres picks & odds today: May 14

See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.35 units

🏆 Who will win Canadiens vs. Sabres?

Oddsmakers and public bettors' confidence are on Buffalo to defend home ice. 63 percent of bets are on the Sabres moneyline in Game 5, along with a whopping 83 percent of bets on over 5.5 total goals. 

The Canadiens are 8-2 SU in their last 10 road games against the Sabres. This includes 8-4 SU in the last 12 head-to-head matchups against the Sabres. 

Alex Newhook has stepped up for the Canadiens with five goals netted in this series. Expect him to continue leading the charge against a sputtering Buffalo offense for a Game 5 upset. 

Score prediction: Canadiens 3, Sabres 2

💰 Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction & best bet

Canadiens Moneyline (+102)

Montreal is undervalued in moneyline betting markets heading into game 5. We already saw the Canadiens dispatch the Lightning, who have much more talent compared to the Sabres, during a clutch Game 7 road win in Round 1. 

The Canadiens have won each of their last nine games as underdogs following a loss. The Sabres are 2-3 SU against Montreal in their last five head-to-head matchups, while uncertainty from goaltending gives an edge to the Canadiens. 

Go to DraftKings to land the best number on the Canadiens to win Game 5 on the road in Buffalo at +102 moneyline odds.

🔥 Best Canadiens vs. Sabres player prop bet

Alex Newhook Over 0.5 points (+146)

Perhaps the biggest surprise of this series has been the high-level production from Alex Newhook. The Canadiens' second-line forward has made the most of his opportunities, despite not being featured on either powerplay unit.

Newhook enters Game 5 with a three-game goal-scoring streak, netting four goals during this stretch against the Sabres. He's also recorded four or more shots on goal in all four starts this series, which increases his goal-scoring probability. 

The Sabres expect to roll out Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Game 5 after a strong performance in Game 4. However, we've seen Buffalo's netminders surrender three or more goals in the majority of playoff games, meaning Newhook is primed to log a goal in his fourth straight start against the Sabres.

Head to FanDuel to bet on Alex Newhook to log over 0.5 points in the player prop market at +146 odds.

🚀 Canadiens vs. Sabres same-game parlay

Montreal has covered the puck line in 17 straight games as a road underdog after a loss. Canadiens D Lane Hutson has logged 1+ assists in three straight starts. Bet one unit on this two-leg same-game parlay on Hutson 1+ points and the Canadiens +1.5 for +116 odds on DraftKings. 

💵 My betting record for NHL picks

All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since April 1.

💡 How I'm betting Canadiens vs. Sabres

Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.

I'm staking 4.25 units on five total bets in tonight's pivotal Game 5 tilt between the Canadiens vs. Sabres. One unit bets include the Canadiens moneyline at plus odds, under 6 total goals, and Alex Newhook to go over 0.5 points. 

A two-leg same-game parlay includes the Canadiens +1.5 and Montreal D Lane Hutson to go over 0.5 points at +116 odds. Both of these wagers have been lucrative, which is why we're staking another unit on this same-game parlay.

For a longshot game prop, I'm staking 0.25 units on a correct score game prop. To align with the Canadiens winning and under 6 total goals, I'm recommending Montreal to win 3-2 in Game 5 at +1300 odds, yielding 3.25 units of profit. 

📊 Live Canadiens vs. Sabres odds: Game 5

Line movement has not been significant since oddsmakers released the Game 5 numbers a couple of days ago. The total is available at 5.5 or 6, depending on the sportsbook operator. The Sabres sit at -120 or -122 in the moneyline betting market.

Public bets are on the Sabres moneyline at 63 percent. It's an even more lopsided number on the total, with 83 percent of bets on over 5.5. 

📈 Canadiens vs. Sabres betting trends

🚑 Canadiens vs. Sabres injuries

📺 How to watch Canadiens vs. Sabres: Game 5

• Date: Thursday, May 14
• Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
• TV: TNT, truTV
• Streaming: HBO Max