🏈 Who Will Draft David Bailey? 2026 NFL Draft Projection, Scouting Report & Team Prediction

For just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era, Texas Tech is slated to have a player selected in the top 10 of the NFL draft, but with plenty of buzz surrounding where he'll go, who will draft David Bailey?

The New York Jets (No. 2) and Arizona Cardinals (No. 3) are the biggest favorites to select Bailey, according to prediction market apps. The nation's sack leader has been increasingly linked to the Jets in recent days and is expected to be taken no later than No. 4 in the 2026 NFL Draft.

I've spent the past year watching film and grading every top prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft. Below, I break down Bailey's draft profile, including his biggest strengths and weaknesses; my full scouting report and draft grade on Bailey; and which team I expect to draft the former Red Raiders' star in the first round on Thursday, April 23, as part of our 2026 NFL Draft predictions. 

📝 David Bailey draft profile

For more on the NFL draft, check out the 2026 NFL Draft odds.

David Bailey strengths

You'll be hard-pressed to find a twitchier pass rusher than Bailey, whose first-step explosiveness pops off the tape and strikes fear into opposing offensive tackles. Bailey, who hit a 96th percentile 40-yard dash (4.50) and broad jump (10'9"), has the straight-line burst to beat offensive linemen to their landmarks and win on the outside with speed.

But what makes Bailey such a productive pass rusher - No. 2 in the nation in pressures (81) - is the power to complement his twitch. He can knock offensive linemen off balance by converting speed to power or breaking out a long-arm move. And with the length (33 3/4" arms) to go with his rocked-up frame, Bailey's active hands can be weapons when he uses them.

With a hot motor that matches his athleticism, Bailey does his best work against the run when chasing plays backside or knifing past blockers with his quickness to get into the backfield. He has the tools to be the most productive edge player in the class as a rookie.

David Bailey weaknesses

For as explosive as Bailey is, there's reason to be concerned about his ceiling due to his stiffness. While he's twitchy off the ball with scary explosiveness moving forward, he struggles to bend and run the arc at the top of his rush when threatening offensive tackles around the corner.

Bailey also needs to improve his pass rush plan, develop counter moves, and work on stringing together secondary moves. This will help him remain a threat as a rusher when his initial move is stymied. 

There's also room for improvement as a run defender, where he needs to set a stronger edge when he's playside. Bailey is often looking to make the play against the run, rather than play technically sound football.

David Bailey scouting report

A blue-chip recruit and the crown jewel of Stanford's 2022 recruiting class, Bailey's collegiate career got off to an inconsistent start. Despite playing three years with the Cardinal, and the program winning just three games in each of his three seasons there, Bailey never broke into the lineup as a full-time starter.

While there were frequent flashes during his time at Stanford (91 pressures, 14.5 sacks in three seasons), Bailey only blossomed once he hit the transfer portal following Troy Taylor's dismissal. A late transfer (ranked No. 12 in the portal), Bailey turned into the best player in a Red Raiders' transfer class that pushed the program to the College Football Playoff.

One of the faces of a top-five defense in college football, Bailey hit the ground running in Lubbock and was garnering top pick attention by mid-season after dominating Houston, Kansas, and Arizona State (28 combined pressures, seven combined sacks). He didn't slow down and was a force in the Red Raiders' CFP loss to Oregon, too.

The All-American has separated himself as one of the few surefire first-round prospects in this class, thanks to his rare twitchiness and developing pass-rush plan. He has the makeup of a double-digit sack player in the NFL, and could reach All-Pro status in the right system if he continues to develop.

Despite questions about Bailey's bend and run defense, this is the type of prospect who goes in the top 10 of pretty much any draft class. 

David Bailey draft grade

• 7.30 (early 1st round)

🔮 Who will draft David Bailey?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.  

David Bailey  draft projection & landing spots

There's been so much noise surrounding Bailey's landing spot lately, with the Texas Tech pass rusher frequently popping up in mock drafts as the Jets' pick at No. 2. Is it smoke or is it real? Nobody seems to know, with the chance of New York drafting Bailey bouncing between 23% and 64% on Kalshi, as of writing.

While New York is almost certainly planning to take a pass rusher with the second overall pick, I think they have their eyes on Ohio State's Arvell Reese. Reese is a better fit for the Jets and is viewed as the higher-upside prospect.

If it is Reese at No. 2, it makes the Bailey situation far more interesting with the Cardinals (36% chance of drafting Bailey) picking No. 3 but reportedly looking to trade back. Could a team like the Kansas City Chiefs (18% chance) or Dallas Cowboys (1% chance) look to move up to No. 3 for Bailey?

The Tennessee Titans (8% chance) sit at No. 4 and would make sense given Robert Saleh's defensive background. However, they've been connected to Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love for weeks.

Prediction: David Bailey to the Cardinals

While the Cardinals hold the No. 3 pick, I'm more confident in Bailey being the third player off the board than I am in Arizona being the team to draft him. But with Arizona holding the pick, that's my prediction for now. With that said, the better approach to this market is to target Bailey as the No. 3 overall pick (31% chance at Kalshi).

Whether it's Arizona, Kansas City, Dallas, or even the Washington Commanders taking the All-American there, Bailey is the type of prospect teams spend top three picks on. He's the most productive pass rusher in the country with off-the-chart traits. Don't be surprised if a team trying to contend in 2026 mortgages the future to move up to No. 3 to take him.