NFL MVP Odds: 3 Sleepers Heading Into New Season
The NFL MVP odds market is dominated by familiar superstar quarterbacks, but bettors looking for value should not overlook some of the longer shots available before the new season begins. While the favorites deserve their respect, there are several quarterbacks entering the season with a legitimate opportunity to outperform expectations and make a run at the award.
We have identified three NFL MVP sleepers worth considering at their current prices: Jaxson Dart at +7000, Jared Goff at +2700 and Sam Darnold at +3000. Here’s why each quarterback could emerge as a serious MVP contender.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
📊 Current odds
Odds are subject to change.
| Player | NFL MVP Odds | Why He's a Sleeper |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | +7000 | High-upside long shot |
| Jared Goff | +2700 | Proven QB with strong supporting cast |
| Sam Darnold | +3000 | Breakout potential |
1️⃣ Jaxson Dart MVP odds (+7000)
Jaxson Dart is our favorite long-shot candidate to win the NFL MVP in 2026, and his +7000 odds offer tremendous value if the second-year quarterback takes a significant leap. Dart showed plenty of promise as a rookie, and expectations are rising around the Giants heading into his first full season as the starter. With John Harbaugh now leading New York and playmakers such as Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo around him, Dart has the supporting cast to make a major jump.
His dual-threat ability gives him another path to compiling impressive numbers, and if he leads the Giants to a surprising playoff run, his MVP case could become impossible to ignore.
2️⃣ Jared Goff MVP Odds (+2700)
Jared Goff is our favorite candidate to win the NFL MVP in 2026, especially if the Detroit Lions return to the top of the NFC. Goff enters the season coming off an impressive 2025 campaign in which he ranked second in the NFL with 4,564 passing yards and 34 touchdowns while posting a 105.5 passer rating. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs surrounding him, Goff has one of the league’s most talented supporting casts and should have plenty of opportunities to produce another massive statistical season.
Projections already have him around 4,500-plus passing yards and 30-plus touchdowns, giving him a realistic path to MVP-caliber numbers. If Goff combines those statistics with a division title and deep playoff run, his MVP case could become extremely difficult to overlook. At a long-shot price, he offers tremendous value.
3️⃣ Sam Darnold MVP Odds (+3000)
Sam Darnold has a legitimate path to winning the NFL MVP award in 2026, especially after proving he can thrive in an aggressive offensive system. Darnold led the Seahawks to a 14-3 regular-season record in 2025 while throwing for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and just 14 interceptions. More importantly, his strong postseason performance helped Seattle reach Super Bowl LX, giving Darnold the type of winning résumé voters often reward. With another year in Seattle's offense, Darnold should be even more comfortable and could improve upon his already impressive numbers.
His combination of efficiency, experience and supporting talent gives him a realistic opportunity to post MVP-caliber statistics while leading the Seahawks back to the top of the NFC. If Darnold eclipses 4,500 passing yards, approaches 35 touchdowns and guides Seattle to another elite record, his MVP case could be impossible to ignore.
🤔 What makes a good NFL MVP sleeper?
A good NFL MVP sleeper needs more than long odds. The ideal candidate has the talent to produce elite numbers, a strong supporting cast and a realistic path to leading his team to a winning record. Quarterbacks are particularly attractive because they have historically dominated the award, with a quarterback winning 18 of the last 20 MVPs.
A sleeper should also enter the season with room to exceed expectations, whether through improved efficiency, a new offensive system or a favorable schedule. Team success is equally important, as voters typically reward players who make a major impact on playoff contenders. Finally, value matters from a betting perspective.
The best NFL MVP sleepers are players whose odds remain longer than their actual chances of winning the award. Identifying that combination of talent, opportunity, team success and price can uncover tremendous value before the season begins.
Related Articles
