NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Best Bets Based on the Odds
The Green Bay Packers are the largest favorite on the Week 4 docket by a huge margin, and they top our survivor rankings in an otherwise daunting slate of games.
Every week in survivor pools is a different animal, and Week 4 has a lone wolf to target: the Green Bay Packers.
There are a number of other potential mismatches to hone in on, but there are also corresponding risks attached to each. If you can muster the confidence to pivot off Green Bay, just make sure you’re comfortable with who you're backing.
If you’ve already used Green Bay, the Dallas Cowboys are my second-ranked team, and that’s terrifying for this Big D diehard.
Here’s a look at the odds list and a breakdown of the best teams to target and fade in survivor pools this week. Check out all of our Week 4 NFL odds and lines here.
Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks Rankings
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Win Probabilty |
| Packers | -10 | -480 | 82.8% |
| Cowboys | -3.5 | -174 | 63.5% |
| Chargers | -5.5 | -235 | 70.1% |
| Eagles | -6.5 | -275 | 73.3% |
| Vikings | -3 | -168 | 62.7% |
| Browns | -1.5 | -124 | 55.4% |
| Lions | -4.5 | -205 | 67.2% |
| Steelers | -3 | -168 | 62.7% |
| Bengals | -3.5 | -205 | 67.2% |
| Colts | -3.5 | -180 | 64.3% |
| Broncos | +2 | +122 | 45.0% |
| Giants | -3.5 | -178 | 64.0% |
| Chiefs | -1.5 | -120 | 54.5% |
| Rams | +1.5 | +100 | 50.0% |
| Cardinals | +1.5 | +100 | 50.0% |
| Bills | -3 | -164 | 62.1% |
| Ravens | +3 | +138 | 42.0% |
| Panthers | -1.5 | -118 | 54.1% |
| 49ers | -1.5 | -118 | 54.1% |
| Buccaneers | +1.5 | +102 | 49.5% |
| Bears | +3.5 | +150 | 40.0% |
| Raiders | -2 | -144 | 59.0% |
| Titans | +3.5 | +154 | 39.4% |
| Dolphins | +3.5 | +172 | 36.8% |
| Jets | +3 | +142 | 41.3% |
| Seahawks | +4.5 | +172 | 36.8% |
| Falcons | +1.5 | +106 | 48.5% |
| Saints | +3 | +142 | 41.3% |
| Jaguars | +6.5 | +225 | 30.8% |
| Texans | +5.5 | +194 | 34.0% |
| Commanders | +3.5 | +146 | 40.7% |
| Patriots | +10 | +370 | 21.3% |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook on Wednesday, Sept. 28, at 12 a.m. ET.
Top Survivor Pool Picks
5. Vikings (at Saints*)
Considering this is a neutral site game in London, the sole reason for ranking the Minnesota Vikings this high is Wednesday’s injury report was littered with impact New Orleans Saints starters, including quarterback Jameis Winston (back/ankle).
If the Saints are with Winston and/or additional starters, the odds will move in Minnesota’s favor, so you’ll want to monitor the news and spread leading into Sunday. I’d steer clear of the London game, but it could provide contrarian value.
4. Eagles (vs. Jaguars)
Here’s this week’s hold-your-nose option.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been analytic darlings with the second-best total DVOA per Football Outsiders to start the season, and there has been minor reverse line movement with the Philadelphia Eagles moving from a -7 favorite to -6.5 despite taking a slightly higher betting handle.
Still, the Eagles boast the fourth-best EPA per play, rank fourth in DVOA, and have the highest overall grade, per PFF. Additionally, Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts is leading the NFL in yards per attempt and has only turned the ball over once through three games.
This could also prove to be a letdown spot for Jacksonville following consecutive upset wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers.
Despite the Eagles trading as the second-largest favorite on the docket, they might not be a chalky target in survivor pools, which adds against-the-grain value. On the flip side, a quick look at Philadelphia’s upcoming schedule showcases oodles of future opportunities to back the Eagles.
3. Chargers (at Texans)
Even with the Los Angeles Chargers dealing with injuries to multiple key players, the Houston Texans aren’t a formidable opponent, and the Bolts can’t afford to dip to a 1-3 start.
Houston spots the third-lowest overall grade, per PFF, and eighth-lowest DVOA, after all.
It would also be shocking if L.A. didn’t have a game plan to shut down the Texans offense. It shouldn’t prove to be a tough test, either. Houston quarterback Davis Mills ranks third last in EPA per play and has completed just 57.94% of his passes for a pedestrian 6.19 yards per attempt.
While it’s definitely worth highlighting the Chargers have been bet down from a -7 look-ahead line at DraftKings Sportsbook to as low as -4.5, there could be considerable buyback on L.A. if wide receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring) and cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle) are trending towards playing Sunday.
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
2. Cowboys (vs. Commanders)
A divisional matchup isn’t a traditional survivor target, but the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders are teams headed in opposite directions the past two weeks. Dallas is up to sixth in DVOA for the year, and Washington has dipped to 32nd.
Washington has also surrendered the sixth-highest EPA per dropback through its past two games, and the Commanders have dropped to the 26th-lowest grade in both defense and run defense, per PFF.
Additionally, the Washington offense has generated the seventh-lowest EPA per play through the past two weeks, and Dallas boasts the second-best pass rush grade, per PFF.
Considering Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown for just 4.7 yards per attempt when pressured this season, it’s going to be a long afternoon at AT&T Stadium for the Washington offense.
The Cowboys offense has also been in good hands with QB Cooper Rush at the helm. Dallas ranks seventh in EPA per play, and Rush hasn’t turned the ball over across his two starts.
1. Packers (vs. Patriots)
Expect the Packers to be the most popular pick in survivor pools this week, and it’s definitely the safest option.
The New England Patriots are expected to be without No. 1 quarterback Mac Jones due to a high ankle sprain, and the Packers have been rock-solid over the past two weeks.
Green Bay has allowed the seventh-lowest EPA per dropback while generating 25 pressures and six sacks, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has connected on 76.67% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt and the 10th-best EPA per play across the past two games.
Additionally, the Patriots don’t project to muster much of a defensive stand. New England grades 25th in defense – 22nd in run defense and 28th in coverage – per PFF, and the Pats also rank 20th in EPA allowed per play.
Back the Pack.
Favorites to Fade
Bills (at Ravens)
Simply put, the Buffalo Bills have too many injuries in the secondary, and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is too explosive to confidently back the Bills on the road in survivor pools this week.
Jackson ranks second in the league in both EPA per play and air yards, and the Ravens rank first in offensive DVOA, after all.
If you’re backing Buffalo at M&T Bank Stadium, you’re far braver than I am.
Raiders (vs. Broncos)
Already 0-3, this is a must-win game for the Las Vegas Raiders, and money is pouring in on the home team.
The Denver Broncos are a dangerous road underdog, though. Denver ranks fifth in time of possession, which has helped the defense stay fresh and surrender the sixth-lowest EPA per play and earn the sixth-highest defense grade per PFF. The Broncos also rank fifth in defensive DVOA.
Additionally, the Las Vegas defense has been especially generous with the seventh-highest EPA allowed per play and 11th-worst grade, per PFF.
With all six games played by these two teams this season finishing as one-possession contests, and this spread hovering between Raiders -2 and -2.5, this projects to be another close matchup between division rivals.
Backing the Raiders also means you’re putting your faith in head coach Josh McDaniels’ .355 career winning percentage. No thanks.
Where to Bet on the NFL
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Related Articles
