Matthew Stafford Super Bowl Prop Bet Picks - Yards, Attempts, Touchdowns Bets for Rams vs. Bengals
Matthew Stafford is finally getting a chance to play for the Super Bowl in his 13th NFL season, and first with the Los Angeles Rams. Here are some of our favorite 2022 Super Bowl player prop bets for Stafford.
In 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions, Stafford established that he was a prolific NFL quarterback, throwing for 45,109 yards in 165 starts. However, the Lions did not have a lot of success, going 74-90-1 with Stafford running their offense.
The Rams were a playoff team seeking an upgrade at quarterback and figured that dropping Stafford into a situation with a better supporting cast would provide the right circumstances. In 2021, Stafford passed for 4,886 yards, his most in a season since 2012. While he threw a league-leading 17 interceptions, his most since 2013, he tied a career-high with 41 touchdown passes. Stafford’s 8.1 yards gained per pass attempt matched the highest full-season rate of his career.
Stafford followed up that excellent regular season with even more efficient play in the postseason, completing 72.0% of his passes while passing for 905 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception through three playoff wins. With a chance to win his first Super Bowl, Stafford will be a media focal point on Sunday.
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Here are the top player prop bets for Matthew Stafford in Super Bowl 56 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
What are Player Prop Bets?
Typically, player props include a specific number with a total, and the bettor must predict whether the prop will land Over or Under the projected line.
Prop bets are a fun way to get action on the game without necessarily needing to pick a side. They're often a more sustainably profitable endeavor than betting on the game outcome.
SEE ALSO: Super Bowl Betting Guide
Matthew Stafford Super Bowl Player Prop Bets
Under 281.5 passing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ???Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-230 via DraftKings) ????Over 0.5 interceptions (-145 via DraftKings) ????Under 24.5 completions (-114 via FanDuel) ???First TD Over 12.5 yards (+100 via FanDuel) ???First pass complete (-225 via FanDuel) ????
SEE ALSO: Rams vs. Bengals Picks
Stafford Super Bowl Props
Under 281.5 passing yards (-110)
Stafford has thrown for more than 282 yards in 12 of 20 games this season, including the playoffs. He also had a couple of close misses, throwing for 280 yards in Week 4 and 278 yards in Week 2.
Stafford faces a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has allowed 247.7 passing yards per game, the seventh-highest average in the league. The Bengals' 6.7 yards allowed per pass attempt, ranks 16th.
In the playoffs, the Bengals have allowed 243.7 passing yards per game to Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Patrick Mahomes, so it is not unreasonable to expect that they could keep Stafford’s yardage below the projected number.
SEE ALSO: Why Rams Will Win Super Bowl
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-230)
Many sportsbooks have the line on Stafford at 2.5 touchdowns and that is more complicated, but Stafford has thrown at least two touchdown passes in nine of his last 10 games. The only exception was in Week 16 at the Minnesota Vikings, which was Stafford's worst performance of the season, despite a 30-23 Rams win.
Cincinnati allowed 26 passing touchdowns and a touchdown percentage of 4.2% this season, both of which were better than league average. The Bengals have allowed five touchdown passes through three playoff contests, so it is easier to see Stafford throwing for two touchdowns in this game but perhaps no more.
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Over 0.5 interceptions (-145)
Although Stafford has thrown just one interception through three playoff games, he threw eight interceptions across the last four games of the regular season.
The Bengals have recorded six interceptions through three playoff games after they had just 13 interceptions and an interception rate of 2.1% in the regular season, both of which ranked 19th. The question is whether Stafford can continue to protect the ball, as he has in the postseason, but the Bengals should be able to grab at least one errant pass.
SEE ALSO: 56 Super Bowl Prop Bets
Under 24.5 completions (-114)
This is a reasonably fair line, as Stafford had 25 or more completions in 10 of 20 games this season, including the playoffs. With Stafford completing 67.2% of his passes during the regular season and 72.0% of his passes in the playoffs, Cincinnati would likely need to reduce that effectiveness to hold him to the Under.
The Bengals allowed 24.7 completions per game during the regular season and have allowed 23.3 completions per game in the playoffs. Cincinnati allowed a completion percentage of 67.1% during the regular season to rank 26th in the league, but in the playoffs that rate has dropped to 59.8%.
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First TD Over 12.5 yards (+100)
Among Stafford’s six playoff touchdown passes this season, two have been for more than 12 yards, with another coming in at 11 yards. During the regular season, Stafford tossed 41 touchdown passes and 19 of which were gains of 12 or more yards. In the AFC Championship Game, the Bengals allowed three touchdown passes of 10 or fewer yards but over the course of the season, 14 of 26 touchdown passes against the Bengals were at least 13 yards.
First pass complete (-225)
This pick is in expectation of the game script and a conservative approach to get the game started. In 20 games this season, Stafford completed his first pass 16 times, including two passes for negative yardage. That's good enough to like Stafford's chances for a first pass completion against Cincinnati.
Where to Bet on the Super Bowl
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts:
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SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
