Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks, Predictions Week 16: Can Tampa Bay Get Right Against Arizona?
The 2022 season hasn't gone as planned for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but they can still bolster their playoff hopes with a winnable game against the Arizona Cardinals on Christmas night. Read on for our Sunday Night Football player prop picks.
The Buccaneers hold a one-game lead in the NFC South despite entering this week at 6-8. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss to Cincinnati, where it held a 17-0 second-quarter lead. It was Tom Brady's first loss when leading by 17-plus points since 2011 and the first-ever such loss at home.
With last week's loss to the Denver Broncos, Arizona (4-10) was eliminated from playoff contention. The Cardinals are amid their longest losing skid (four) since 2019 and fell to 0-9 this season when allowing 100-plus rushing yards.
Here are our best Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Sunday Night Football player prop picks for Week 16 (odds via BetRivers and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Picks and our Buccaneers vs. Cardinals SGP Picks.
Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks for Buccaneers vs. Cardinals
- Tom Brady Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 via BetRivers)
- Trace McSorley Over 188.5 passing yards (-114 via BetRivers)
- Mike Evans Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings)
Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.
Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Odds
Sunday Night Football Player Props
Tom Brady Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-137) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tampa Bay has seemingly abandoned the run of late, ranking second in neutral pass rate since Week 8. This would again figure to be a game where the Buccaneers throw a lot, as Arizona ranks 23rd against the pass (237.6 yards per game allowed). However, instead of backing Brady's Over in passing yards out of fear the Buccaneers may not throw as much if they get up big, we expect him to throw two or more touchdowns for the fifth time in the last six games.
BetRivers offers slightly better juice than the -140s or -142s to back the Over on this prop at competing sportsbooks.
Trace McSorley Over 187.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
This does not project to be a popular play, as McSorley has attempted just 29 passes on the season and faces the league’s fourth-best pass defense (194.5 yards per game allowed). However, the Buccaneers have looked more vulnerable of late, ranking 29th in success rate per dropback and 25th in EPA per dropback over the last six weeks. We know Kliff Kingsbury likes to throw the ball as Arizona ranks sixth in passing play percentage, and in a game the Cardinals figure to trail, McSorley should cash this Over on sheer volume alone.
The slightly extra juice is worth it at BetRivers, as competing sportsbooks are either at 189.5 or 191.5 for this total.
Mike Evans Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
For you fantasy football pundits, Mike Evans scored 13.3 fantasy points last week, as that total and his 83 yards were his most since Week 8. Additionally, Evans' 10 targets were his most since Week 9, and he has seen at least nine in three of his last four games. He ranks 16th among all wide receivers in air-yard share (32.8%) and is third in deep targets. Though Brady has looked his way often lately, all it could take is one long reception to cash this wager.
Major sportsbooks vary between 57.5 and 63.5 as of Sunday morning, and with DraftKings offering a -115 line on the Over, this is your best option.
Sunday Night Football player prop picks made 12/23/2022 at 9:12 a.m. ET.
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