Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction: Week 2 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots meet in Foxborough in September for the second straight season, and my Steelers vs. Patriots prediction expects the result to be different from last year’s 21-14 Pittsburgh victory.
New England had a long week to prepare for Pittsburgh after opening the season last Wednesday, and this is no longer a Mike Tomlin-coached Steelers team that won on the road in Gillette Stadium last year.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS), and New England is a 5.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Steelers vs. Patriots picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 2 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Patriots -4.5 (-121 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.83 units |
| Under 41.5 (-107 via Caesars) | 1 unit to win 0.94 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.77 units
💰 Steelers vs. Patriots prediction & best bet
Check out all of our NFL picks for more analysis across this week's slate.
🔴 Patriots -4.5 (-121 via DraftKings)
I’m taking an outright upset off the table, as New England hasn’t lost back-to-back games since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach. I also cannot see Pittsburgh lighting up the scoreboard against a Patriots defense that hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in three straight regular season games (and two of their four playoff games).
Aaron Rodgers didn’t have much success targeting D.K. Metcalf or Michael Pittman Jr., who combined for seven receptions on 13 targets for 98 yards in Week 1. The lack of explosive plays in the passing game is a big reason Pittsburgh ranked 29th in yards per play (4.1) in Week 1.
Now with Pittman Jr. questionable on Sunday, that could allow New England to shadow Metcalf with stud cornerback Christian Gonzalez. That lowers Metcalf’s ceiling considerably, even after he has seen fewer than 70 air yards worth of passes in nine of 15 games with Rodgers under center.
As opposed to making a play on the Under my best bet, I couldn't pass up the extra half-point of value at DraftKings, who is a full point lower than the rest of the top sports betting sites at Patriots -5.5.
📡 SBR Edge: Rodgers' poor statistics under pressure
New England's pass rush could go a long way in deciding this game, as Aaron Rodgers had the 22nd-ranked QBR in Week 1 when facing pressure.
Maye to get the deep ball going
Last season on throws of 11 or more air yards, Drake Maye completed 60% of his passes for 14.0 yards per attempt, and a 14-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On such throws against the vaunted Seahawks defense in Week 1, Maye had a 29% completion percentage while averaging 4.6 yards per attempt and a 0-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In betting on a bounceback from Maye, who should get the vertical passing game going against Pittsburgh. On throws of 15 or more yards downfield in Week 1, the Steelers defense allowed Cooper Rush to complete two of four passes for an average of 10 yards per attempt.
Score prediction: Patriots 21, Steelers 13
📊 Steelers vs. Patriots odds
See the latest NFL odds for every Week 2 matchup.
Steelers vs. Patriots opening odds
- Moneyline: Steelers +195 | Patriots -235
- Spread: Steelers +5.5 (-110) | Patriots -5.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 43 (-112) | Under 43 (-105)
📺 How to watch Steelers vs. Patriots: Week 2
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: YouTube TV
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