Patriots vs. Packers Picks, Predictions NFL Week 4: New England Visits Lambeau
The New England Patriots are without QB Mac Jones as they visit the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. Here are our top Patriots-Packers picks.
Brian Hoyer will make his first start of the 2022 season and just his third since 2017 in place of the injured Jones (ankle). New England enters the day at 1-2 off of a 37-26 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week.
The Packers are back in form after losing 23-7 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1. They beat the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the last two weeks.
Check out all of our top NFL Week 4 picks here.
Where does the betting value lie in this NFL Week 4 matchup? We break it down in our Patriots-Packers picks and predictions (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patriots vs. Packers Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Weather: 64 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds
Patriots vs. Packers Odds
Patriots vs. Packers Odds Analysis
The spread has grown from a consensus opener of Packers -6.5 to -9.5 as of Sunday morning aided by the injury ruling on Jones. Green Bay has also drawn 72% of the tickets and 71% of the betting handle.
The Over/Under is also affected by Jones' absence. The line dropped from 43 to 40 with 87% of the handle on the Under.
Patriots vs. Packers Picks
- Spread: Patriots +9.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
- Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★
- Prop: Jonnu Smith Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-120 via DraftKings) ★★★
Patriots vs. Packers ATS Pick
Patriots +9.5 (-110) ★★★★
This spread is too much to lay with a Packers team that averaged just 16 PPG through Week 3. Only four of Green Bay’s last 14 victories exceeded 10 points, and three of those four came playing the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.
New England deserved better last week against the Baltimore Ravens than the 37-26 score suggests. The Pats led midway through the third quarter before self-destructing with turnovers on their final three drives. If backup quarterback Brian Hoyer starts, he won’t bring the same downfield passing ability as starter Jones, but the Pats shouldn’t be as vulnerable to interceptions that could turn the game in Green Bay’s favor.
Patriots vs. Packers O/U Pick
Under 40.5 (-110) ★★
It's always risky betting Under such a low total in a game involving Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, but it’s the way to go until he develops better chemistry with his receivers. The highest-scoring Green Bay game this year featured 37 total points, and the Packers have been held to 14 points or less in three of their last four matchups. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defense is playing lights out, allowing just 28 points in its last 10 quarters.
Whether it’s Jones or Hoyer under center for New England, the Pats’ best chance to keep things close is by minimizing mistakes with a conservative game plan. That means plenty of running from RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who can eat up the clock. Even after giving up 37 points to the Ravens, New England still ranks eighth against the pass and 10th in total yards allowed.
Patriots vs. Packers Prop Pick
Smith Over 14.5 receiving yards (-120) ★★★
Jonnu Smith appears to have beaten out Hunter Henry as New England’s top tight end. After being held off the statsheet in Week 2, Smith was a bigger part of last week's offense, catching all four of his targets for 25 yards.
With New England looking to cut down on turnovers, especially if Hoyer starts, expect the Pats to target Smith several times with short and intermediate throws in the middle of the field.
Where to Bet on Patriots vs. Packers Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
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Patriots-Packers picks made 9/30/2022 at 11:03 a.m. ET
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