Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds Wild Card Weekend: Predictions for Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Check out our top Patrick Mahomes player props for Saturday's Wild Card Weekend matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs based on the best NFL odds.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: January 13, 2024 7:24 PM EST • 5 minute read

The Kansas City Dolphins and Miami Dolphins meet Saturday as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend, and our Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps believe the Chiefs passer will take care of business at home against the visiting Dolphins.

The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) will attempt to take one step closer to defending their Super Bowl title on Saturday when they host the Miami Dolphins (11-6) as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend. And, as always, all eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes to put Kansas City on his back.

The Chiefs' offense is a far cry from the high-flying versions of years past, especially with former Kansas City star wideout Tyreek Hill on the other side of Saturday's matchup. But you can't count out the league's best quarterback in a wide-open AFC.

Mahomes and Co. will host the Miami Dolphins for Saturday's wild-card matchup, and Peacock will broadcast it exclusively. In a game that could feature some snow and frigid temperatures, can Mahomes lead his team to victory?

To go along with our Tua Tagovailoa NFL player props as part of our NFL predictions, here are our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for the Dolphins vs. Chiefs Wild Card Weekend matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Patrick Mahomes longest rush Under 12.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
SGP: Patrick Mahomes 200-plus passing yards + Chiefs ML (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes player props

Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is honestly a principle play at this point. I was paying plus-money prices to take the Over on 2.5 touchdown passes during previous seasons on Mahomes in almost any significant game. You're telling me we only have to pay -135 juice to bet the Over on 1.5 touchdown passes now?

This same Over is being priced as short as -152 through FanDuel, which is likely closer to a fair price. Mahomes has only thrown multiple touchdown passes once over his last five games, but we believe he's going to take matters into his own hands during the postseason

The signal-caller has thrown 35 total touchdown passes for an average of 2.5 per contest across 14 career playoff games. He's tossed for multiple touchdowns in 12 of those outings, with the exception being his playoff debut and the loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl.

The Dolphins are dealing with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and we believe Mahomes will take full advantage on Saturday.

Caesars boost for Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Caesars is boosting the odds for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to each have 50+ receiving yards on Saturday night from -120 to +140!

Offer is available everywhere Caesars operates with a max bet of $10.

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!

Patrick Mahomes longest rush Under 12.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

As explained in our Dolphins vs. Chiefs player props, I think Mahomes' rushing props have been steamed too much. We recommended taking the Under on 28.5 rushing yards, and the total has since dropped to 25.5 throughout the market. There's no longer any value on that line, though this longest rush market is worth a look as of Friday afternoon.

FanDuel is offering the best odds on Mahomes' longest run ahead of Saturday, with the Under priced at -114. Mahomes hasn't cleared this mark in five of his last six games, with his longest run over that span being just 13 yards. There seems to be a narrative that Mahomes runs more in the playoffs, but he's averaging just 5.72 yards per attempt during his postseason career.

Most of all, the Dolphins don't give up many big runs based on their scheme. They rank No. 1 in the league in PFF's run defense grade. Even in unfavorable conditions, the Chiefs are more likely to win this game by trusting Mahomes' arm rather than his legs.

SGP: Patrick Mahomes 200-plus passing yards + Chiefs ML (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Based on my previous props, I clearly expect the Chiefs to find more success through the air against a depleted Dolphins defense. It's difficult to hold complete faith in Kansas City's shaky receiver unit, but that's why we went a bit conservative with this same-game parlay.

Mahomes is getting a passing yardage prop of 246.5 yards across our best sportsbooks, which is right in line with his projection for this game. But we're confident in his ability to reach the 200-yard plateau, especially since he's done so in each of his last six contests. Mahomes has thrown for at least 200 yards in 11 of his 14 playoff games too.

The Chiefs, who are more than field-goal favorites at home, should ultimately claim victory over the Dolphins. Kansas City is 11-3 in the postseason since Mahomes became the starter, with all three losses taking place in the AFC Championship Game or later. Bet on Mahomes and Co. to get past the Wild Card Round on Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made Friday at 2:50 p.m. ET.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.