Passing Yards Total Cheat Sheet: Davis Mills Being Undervalued in Betting Props
As the NFL's leading passer, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady soared past his projected total with 5,316 passing yards last season. We have created a small cheat sheet containing all of this year's passing yardage odds.
Several sportsbooks have posted season-long totals on player props in advance of the NFL season. To see if there are any significant gaps between the projections and the betting markets, I decided to cross-reference these totals with the projections from Fantasy Pros, ESPN, and Pro Football Focus.
The following are some of the players who stand out to me after comparing their projections to their player prop totals for the upcoming season.
2022 NFL Passing Yards Lines
| Player | Projections via Fantasy Pros, ESPN and PFF | Total via DraftKings Sportsbook | Difference |
| Josh Allen | 4,418 | 4400.5 | +17.5 |
| Tom Brady | 4,819 | 4650.5 | +168.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4,747 | 4650.5 | +96.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4,560 | 4500.5 | +59.5 |
| Justin Herbert | 4,550 | 4700.5 | -150.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 4,556 | 4350.5 | +205.5 |
| Joe Burrow | 4,473 | 4450.5 | +22.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4,315 | 4050.5 | +264.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4,318 | 4200.5 | +117.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4,036 | 3850.5 | +185.5 |
| Derek Carr | 4,326 | 4450.5 | -124.5 |
| Davis Mills | 3,966 | 3600.5 | +365.5 |
| Matt Ryan | 3,963 | 3900.5 | +62.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4,001 | 4000.5 | +0.5 |
| Carson Wentz | 3,868 | 3500.5 | +367.5 |
| Jared Goff | 3,942 | 3700.5 | +241.5 |
| Kyler Murray | 4,170 | 4050.5 | +119.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3,693 | 3550.5 | +142.5 |
| Daniel Jones | 3,828 | 3550.5 | +277.5 |
| Mac Jones | 3,934 | 3950.5 | -16.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 4,050 | 4100.5 | -50.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3,678 | 3550.5 | +127.5 |
| Trey Lance | 3,662 | 3500.5 | +161.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3,746 | 3600.5 | +145.5 |
| Justin Fields | 3,614 | 3350.5 | +263.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3,544 | 3700.5 | -156.5 |
Total Passing Yards: Best Bets
- Mills Over 3450.5 yards (-112 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Mills, QB, Houston Texans: Over 3450.5 yards (-112 via FanDuel)
When reviewing the cheat sheet, Davis Mills immediately stands out. Based on the projections, he is expected to throw for 365.5 more yards than his total at DraftKings Sportsbook, but it gets even better. There is an even lower total on Mills at FanDuel, which is listed at 3450.5 yards. As a result, there is a difference of 515.5 yards between his projection and his player prop.
On these season-long props, I do not typically favor Over bets, but with such a wide gap, I had to place a bet on Mills. The projections and the total differ by 515.5 yards, so Mills could miss a game due to injury and still surpass his total.
Another reason I favor Mills to the Over is that he has no competition behind him on the depth chart. It is 100% his team for this season, and the Texans will evaluate Mills to determine whether they are building around him or moving in a different direction.
Wentz, QB, Washington Commanders: 3500.5 yards (-110/-110 via DraftKings)
In a similar manner to Mills, Carson Wentz's total is significantly lower than his projection, but I have a different opinion here. It is my preference to combine statistical edge with my own opinion when betting on futures, and when both of these factors align, I place the wager.
While there is no doubt a statistical edge here, I personally do not want to bet on an Over on a Wentz prop bet. It is because of this opinion that I hold that his total is so low, as there is such a negative aura surrounding his name.
The projection assumes Wentz will play all 17 games, which I do not believe to be the case. I think we could see rookie Sam Howell under center for Washington at some point this season.
Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders: 4450.5 yards (-110/-110 via DraftKings)
The fact that Derek Carr's projection was 124.5 yards below his betting total also caught my attention when making the cheat sheet. Since Davante Adams joined the Raiders, Carr has become one of the players on whom people have been quick to bet the Over.
The sportsbooks are aware of the increased public perception of Carr and have opened his totals higher than they should. Carr could still throw for 4,800 yards this season; these are just projections, but the numbers aren’t in your favor if you are playing the Over.
Where to Bet on NFL Passing Yards Props
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
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