NFL Week 6 Last Chance Value Picks

Last week was another winning one as we went 2-1 against the spread after a sweep the week before. Let’s keep the hits coming as we seek out the biggest value on the board and crush the books with our NFL picks!

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

The NFL odds at all of the best online sportsbooks opened with the Packers as 3.5 points road favorites but the money is moving them to as high as -6 in some shops and we see nothing but value in that number.

I will grant you that the Bears have two very important defensive pieces in Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks who are both questionable, while their starting running back, Damien Williams, is out due to Covid protocols. Thus, the inflated line on this game.

https://youtu.be/FQdb_nEZqdo

However, if we get both Mack and Hicks dressed for this game we are in good shape and as for Williams, losing him is no great shake as he was simply the next man up after David Montgomery went down. Williams is a good back but not unlike the many in the NFL that can be replaced without losing much, if anything at all.

Lastly, the trend chasers will point out that the Packers have won and covered the last four meetings with the Bears. And while that is true, I think this year’s Chicago edition is just decent enough to keep this one within the margins, especially since these margins have widened quite a bit since the opening line.

NFL Pick: Bears +6 (-115)

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals warms up before the game against the 49ers. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 04:05 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium

The bump in this line is slight but significant as the Browns have gone from 3 to 3.5 point home chalk against one of the most prolific offenses in the league, the Arizona Cardinals, currently averaging 31.4 points (4th) per game. As any seasoned NFL bettor knows, there isn’t a bigger hook to be found than the one that brings you onto, over, or under the magical number three. In this case, we are now getting the road dog +3.5 and that sounds mighty fine to me.

The caveat here is that the Cardinals have players in their lineup that are questionable all over the board. Kyler Murray has a shoulder issue but he’ll likely play while DeAndre Hopkins has come down with an illness and is unlikely to suit up.

https://twitter.com/Browns/status/1449008673511067649?s=20

His potential absence looms large, that’s for sure. Starting running back, Chase Edmonds is also dealing with a shoulder issue but you’ll forgive me if I don’t break out into a panic over someone who has yet to break the plane of the end zone this year.

Yes, the Browns are a good team but if the books will give me north of a field goal head start with the likes of the Cardinals, I’ll happily take it and you should too. Grab the points with the live road dog in this one.

NFL Pick: Cardinals +3 ½ (-115)

The Seahawks will have to rely on Geno Smith for a couple of weeks after Russell Wilson´s injury. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 08:20 PM EDT at Heinz Field

The best thing about having accounts at multiple books is the options provided because of it. You are not relegated to taking whatever line your book has because you can always go across the virtual street to another and get a better number.

Over the long haul, this practice will serve you well because the guy (or girl) getting the sharpest numbers will always make more money – or lose less, depending on the bettor – and that’s what matters most.

https://twitter.com/Seahawks/status/1446306306273341442?s=20

In this game, we see that the Steelers opened as 4.5 point favorites over the Seahawks and that line has gone up to -5 at most sports betting sites.

However, there is one renegade out there that is dealing Pittsburgh -4 and if I have my druthers, which I do, I will gladly lay the four points with the Steelers rather than take the +5 with the bloodied and battered Seahawks.

As you all know, Geno Smith will be taking the reins of the Seattle offense in place of the injured Russell Wilson and he won’t be able to rely on his running game as Chris Carson is out, and the Steelers stop the run very well in the first place.

Therefore, Smith will be tasked with outgunning Ben Roethlisberger in an aerial war. Sorry, my money is on Big Ben, and at a price, I can stomach. Lay it and like it.

NFL Pick: Steelers -4 (-115)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.