NFL Best Bets for Week 4: Expert Picks & Predictions

Nine of the 16 games this week have point spreads of a field goal or less, which had me digging into the data for my NFL best bets for Week 4.

Among my top NFL picks is a moneyline wager on a team looking to make the playoffs and overcome a 0-3 start for the second straight season, and I also see value in the first game being played in London this year. 

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 4

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 4 based on the latest NFL odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.52 units

💰 Best NFL bets this week

🐴 Colts -3.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

This is a matchup of two teams that snapped losing streaks last week. Washington earned its first home win since Week 3 of last season and snapped a six-game home losing streak in the process. But I’m buying more into Indianapolis’ turnaround after snapping a nine-game losing streak, which had been the longest active streak in the NFL.

Indianapolis’ defense had been much maligned after allowing 514.5 total yards per game through two weeks, the second-worst through two games in NFL history. But the Colts allowed just 67 yards to the Texans in the first half, and 27 yards across five possessions in the first and third quarters.

It’s also a great sign that Daniel Jones averaged more yards per attempt while under pressure (7.7) than from a clean pocket (5.7) in the win.

🐂 Texans ML (-105 via bet365)

For whatever reason, the Texans have a hard time getting going in September under head coach DeMeco Ryans. Houston was already 0-2 for the third time in four years, and now will look to repeat history after overcoming an 0-3 start to make the playoffs last season.

Houston entered last week with the fifth-worst Pass Rush Win Rate, but Will Anderson Jr. single-handedly did his best to improve those numbers last week while generating nine pressures and 2.5 sacks. 

Meanwhile, Dallas’ offensive success against Baltimore last week was aided by the Ravens missing 13 tackles. I’m also worried about Dallas’ running game, which entered Week 3 with the third-worst rushing total and the fewest rushing first downs, as well as its ability to rebound from the travel to last week’s game in Rio.

Teams that are 0-3 playing a team with at least one win in Week 4 have covered the spread 65% of the time since 2005, including a 13-3 ATS record since 2020. But even though the point spread is lower than the key number of three at most top sports betting sites, I’m still more comfortable just backing a desperate Houston team to win outright.

Dolphins-Vikings Under 38.5 (-106 via FanDuel)

Minnesota leaned heavily on zone coverage, using it on 86% of pass plays in Week 3. That is smart, considering it has allowed an NFL-low 52% completion rate in 2026 while using zone.

The Vikings are also pressuring quarterbacks on a league-high 47% of dropbacks while blitzing 68% of the time. By comparison, no other team has blitzed at higher than a 47% rate.

Minnesota is a somewhat unconvincing 3-0 considering it has been outgained by a net minus-244 total yards thus far. That is the second-worst among 3-0 teams all time (the 2020 Seahawks were minus-268 and the 2018 Chiefs were minus-227, and both teams finished 12-4).

Miami’s offense also has a much lower ceiling without its best playmaker as De’Von Achane suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Achane finished fifth in rushing yards and had the most explosive runs a season ago.

🐾 Panthers +3.5 (-105 via bet365)

The Lions are 2-1, but their defensive issues suggest that that is not sustainable. After all, Detroit is the second team in NFL history to score 30+ points in each of its first three games of a season but also have a negative point differential over that span. That bodes well for the Panthers’ chances of scoring points, like they did when their 71 points were their most through two games in team history.

Carolina is 1-5 over its last six games dating back to last season, including playoffs. But while Carolina has lost four of its last five road games by anywhere from 1-13 points, it has won six consecutive home games against the Lions, with the home team covering the last four games in this rivalry. 

I don’t expect Detroit to get the same pressure that Cleveland got on Bryce Young when the Browns had a 51% pressure rate while blitzing on fewer than 30% of their defensive snaps.