Falcons vs. Packers Prediction: Week 3 Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Michael Penix Jr. is set to play for the first time in 10 months, and his return to the lineup is a key reason why I’m backing Kevin Stefanski’s team to cover the spread in my Falcons vs. Packers prediction.
The Packers, who welcome the Falcons to Lambeau Field for Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), are the 6.5-point betting favorite. While Penix will help the visitors keep it close, his return isn't the only reason I’m taking the points.
🏈 Falcons vs. Packers picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 3 based on the latest NFL odds.
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💰 Falcons vs. Packers prediction & best bet
Falcons +6.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
The Packers’ offense, ranked fourth-worst in EPA per play, hasn't been good enough to gain separation from a Falcons team that should be immeasurably better with Penix under center.
While I understand it will take Penix time to work through the accrued rust, the team should be galvanized and markedly more threatening with their No. 1 back.
With the ninth-best defensive EPA per play, I expect the Falcons defense to contain an injury-impacted Packers offense that has been among the most disjointed.
Jayden Reed and starting offensive tackle Zach Bako-Bewele’s injuries will make it even more challenging for Jordan Love and Co.
📡 SBR Edge - Stefanski's perfect TNF record
Stefanski is 5-0 on TNF, and four of those five victories occurred on the back of a loss
Falcons’ advantage on the ground
The Packers have the worst rushing EPA per play, while the Falcons are the second-best defending the run.
Matt LaFleur’s team is solid defensively against the run, with the sixth-best EPA. However, they face Bijan Robinson, who, despite not reaching the100-yard mark yet, is one of the most elusive and athletic backs around.
Score prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 20
📊 Falcons vs. Packers odds
See the latest NFL odds for every Week 3 matchup.
Falcons vs. Packers opening odds
- Moneyline: Falcons +260 | Packers -325
- Spread: Falcons +7 (-112) | Packers -7 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-108)
📺 How to watch Falcons vs. Packers: Week 3 TNF
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 23
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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