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Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds, Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: Can Brady Conjure More Playoff Magic?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 16, 2023 11:51 AM EST • 2 min 31 sec read.

Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on prior to the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 08, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on prior to the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 08, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images via AFP.

Wild Card Weekend wraps up on Monday night as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The winners will advance to face the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round. Read on for our top Cowboys vs. Buccaneers NFL pick based on the best NFL odds.

The Cowboys (12-5) won the most games of any wild card team in either conference. Dallas looks for its first road playoff win in the last nine tries, and QB Dak Prescott wants to improve his 1-3 career playoff record (all four games were decided by one score). 

Tampa Bay’s NFC South title was Brady’s 19th career division title. However, it was the first time his team finished with a losing record (8-9) since his rookie season in 2000. The Buccaneers won at Dallas 19-3 in Week 1. 

Here is our best Cowboys vs. Buccaneers NFL Wild Card Weekend pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Cowboys vs. Buccaneers SGP picks, Dak Prescott vs. Tom Brady player prop picks and our Cowboys vs. Buccaneers player prop picks for Wild Card Weekend.

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Game Info

  • Date: Monday, Jan. 16, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, 4-mph SSE wind

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds Analysis

The Cowboys are favorites heading into tonight's game, although the line has dipped at most books. They opened at -3, but the line's shifted to -2.5, as 54% of the bets have been placed on Tom Brady and the Bucs. You can, however, still grab the line at -3 via Caesars.  

The O/U opened at 44.5 and is up to 45.5 at all books except WynnBet, who's still at 45. There is similar solid two-way action on the total as on the spread, as 54% of the action sided with the Under.

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Pick

Buccaneers +3 vs. Cowboys (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

It's hard to argue with Brady’s 7-0 career record against the Cowboys and that he's 4-0 SU and ATS in four playoff games where he's been an underdog since 2019. However, we're buying a half-point and making this a three-star play since the Bucs were an NFL-worst 4-12-1 ATS this season (the worst of Brady’s career), but one we'd still play given Dallas’ struggles on grass.

Four of the Cowboys’ five losses this year came on natural grass, while they're 11-1 on turf. Grass affected Dallas' defense considerably compared to playing on turf, as it has a lower sacks per game average (2.4 compared to 3.5), a higher blitz percentage (35% compared to 25%), and a much worse TD-INT (11-3 compared to 12-13). 

In the last 17 seasons, teams that entered the playoffs with a sub-.500 record are 3-1 ATS, so we'll especially throw out Tampa Bay’s poor record, knowing Brady has nearly every playoff passing milestone. 

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Best Odds

DraftKings (-130)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+2.5+2.5+2.5+2.5+2.5
-2.5 -115, +2.5 -105-2.5 -115, +2.5 -105-2.5 -115, +2.5 -105-2.5 -110, +2.5 -110-2.5 -110, +2.5 -110

While the line dropped to +2.5 at all sportsbooks, there was still some flexibility Wednesday through Friday. At books like PointsBet, BetMGM, and DraftKings, the line increased to +3 after an initial dip to +2.5. Thus, bettors could wait to see if the line goes back to +3 on its own, but I'm more comfortable getting a field goal with the Bucs than betting them at anything less, and would buy the half-point if needed.

Cowboys-Buccaneers pick made 1/14/2023 at 7:18 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.