Colts vs. 49ers Week 7 Picks: Back the Under in Bad Weather

Indianapolis is one of our favorite underdog choices for Week 7. Read why in our Sunday Night Football Colts and 49ers picks, which promises to be a low-scoring game.

People have been too quick to bury the San Francisco 49ers, who are 2-3 straight up but 1-4 against the spread. Just like last year, the Niners have already had some serious injury problems, but they’ll have Jimmy Garoppolo back at quarterback when they host the Indianapolis Colts (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) on Sunday Night Football.

The Colts are better than advertised, too. They’re a profitable team thus far and they’re my choice as a road underdog on the spread, but you should get even more betting value from the Under in this contest.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 7 matchup between the Colts and 49ers (odds via BetMGM).

Colts vs. 49ers Week 7 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 24, 8:20 p.m. ETTV: NBCLocation: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CAWeather: 61 degrees, strong chance of high winds and rain

Colts vs. 49ers Odds Analysis

The 49ers are 4-point home favorites at BetMGM as we go to press. If you shop around, you can also find them at -3.5 and -4.5 with different levels of juice. Bookmakers had some trouble pinning this down originally, opening San Fran anywhere from -2.5 to -5. The SBR consensus reports showed a slight preference for Indianapolis earlier in the week, but now the action is nearly dead even.

The 44-point total for this contest is down slightly from the 44.5 opening, although some had it at 43.5. Early action saw the total climb as high as 45, with 70 percent consensus on the Over.

Colts vs. 49ers Betting Picks

Indianapolis +4 (-110)Under 44 (-115)

SEE ALSO: Week 7 Underdogs, Including the Colts

Colts vs. 49ers Betting Predictions

Indianapolis +4 (-110)

This is a slight lean toward the road dogs. The Niners have outperformed the Colts this year, but only by a small margin. Football Outsiders ranks San Francisco 10th overall (No. 10 offense, No. 12 defense) on its efficiency charts, and has Indianapolis at 15th (No. 15 offense, No. 17 defense).

Pro Football Reference also has San Fran slightly ahead at plus-1.7 on its Simple Rating System, compared to Indianapolis at plus-1.0. This suggests the Colts are the right NFL pick getting four points on the road, and the away team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.

At the same time, the Niners are coming off a bye week, which gave Garoppolo the time he needed to heal from his calf injury and get the start with Trey Lance (knee) out for Week 7.

Neither side has performed well on special teams, but Football Outsiders gives Indy the nod at No. 18, three spots better than San Francisco. The punters – Rigoberto Sanchez (IND) and Mitch Wishnowsky (SFO) – have been their best assets in this category.

We're backing Indianapolis to improve to an impressive 5-2 ATS in our Colts vs. 49ers picks.

https://twitter.com/SBRSportsPicks/status/1451322430639599637

Under 44 (-110)

It’s always tempting to take the Under when the Niners play at Levi’s Stadium. The turf at this venue has been an ongoing problem, which is one of the reasons why San Fran players keep getting injured.

And the betting market appears to have adjusted. Including playoff games, the Over is 11-9 in Santa Clara since the start of the 2019 campaign, but good thing there are other useful trends helping us out.

The Under is 4-0 for San Fran in its last four games following an ATS loss, and 6-1 following a SU loss. It’s also 4-0 in the 49ers' last four October games.

It’s almost monsoon season on the Cascadian coast. Sunday’s forecast calls for rain all through the night at Levi’s Stadium, with winds topping 15mph blowing from corner to corner, toward the Chicken Guy. Bet accordingly.

SEE ALSO: Chiefs vs. Titans Week 7 Picks

Picks made on 10/20/2021 at 8:55 p.m. ET.