Has too much been made of the early weeks in the NFL with the Week 7 betting lines? We think so and offer up three NFL underdog picks to back for Week 7.
There’s nothing more thrilling than bypassing the points offered to you on an undervalued team and heading straight for the moneyline. There’s a much greater profit to be had when backing the underdog straight up for the upset.
With great risk comes great reward, and we will seek out those big paydays with our Week 7 NFL underdog picks. This week, I’m seeing two teams that could very well be favored and one team not getting enough love.
Here’s a look at my top three NFL Week 7 underdog picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook):
Miami Dolphins (+120) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins defense is better than this. A year ago, we waxed poetic about head coach Brian Flores and this unit, the front seven in particular. CB Xavien Howard emerged as a star, and teams didn’t want to see Miami on the schedule.
Well, things haven’t gone nearly as well this year. The Dolphins sit 26th in defensive DVOA and are looking for answers. Two of them may be coming their way in Week 7.
Howard and CB Byron Jones, who were inactive for Week 6 due to injury, were seen at Miami’s walkthrough on Wednesday. They seem to be trending toward playing and will make a real impact against Atlanta’s pass-happy attack if they return.
It’s easy to look at the Dolphins’ losses and peg them as a bad team, but all of them but one — last week’s loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London without the two star cornerbacks — were against quality opponents. The Falcons are not one of those.
SEE ALSO: NFL power rankings Week 7
New York Jets (+220) vs. New England Patriots
It’s hard to back the Jets after they were embarrassed by the Patriots in a 25-6 loss in Week 2; however, there is a lot to like about this team. For starters, the defense — considered prior to the season to be their biggest weakness — has stepped up and ranks 17th against the run by DVOA. DT Foley Fatukasi, in particular, has ranked among the league’s elite run-stuffers. That may take out Patriots RB Damien Harris, who is one of this team’s biggest strengths.
Then, there is rookie QB Zach Wilson, who has looked really good on a few occasions while the players around him don’t. He should have a healthy receiving corps for the first time all season coming out of the bye week.
Indianapolis Colts (+175) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Colts are proving on a weekly basis that they can run the football. RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off a 145-yard game against the Houston Texans, and will now match up with the 15th-ranked rushing defense of the 49ers, according to DVOA.
While Indianapolis should be able to run it down San Francisco’s throat, its defense should do decently against rookie QB Trey Lance, as well. The secondary has really picked things up of late, aside from the 31-25 Week 5 overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Lance has not been a threat whatsoever throwing the football and recorded just 192 yards while making his first start in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals.
San Francisco’s rushing defense has been awful, and Indianapolis has been superb — ranking first in DVOA. That will help against a run-first quarterback.
SEE ALSO: Super Bowl odds after Week 6