The New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills for Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 13 in the NFL. Read on for our top Bills-Patriots NFL picks.
The Bills (8-3) and Patriots (6-5) each had their time in the national spotlight on Thanksgiving, but with mixed results.
Buffalo escaped Detroit with a 28-25 victory, becoming the first team in NFL history to win two games in five days in a stadium that was not its home venue. Meanwhile, New England fell to last place in the division with a 33-26 loss at Minnesota, its third defeat in four games against NFC opponents this season.
Bills vs. Patriots Game Info
Date: Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Weather: 43 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 16-mph W wind
Bills vs. Patriots Odds
Bills vs. Patriots Odds Analysis
The Bills opened as consensus 5.5-point favorites but that has been bet down to -3.5 as of Thursday morning. That move comes despite 71% of the tickets accounting for 60% of the handle on the Bills' side of the spread.
The Over/Under has also ticked down through the week. The consensus opening line of 45 sits at 43.5 as of Thursday morning with 72% of the tickets and 80% of the cash on the Over.
Check out NFL Week 13 odds and lines analysis.
Bills vs. Patriots Picks
Bills vs. Patriots ATS Pick
Bills -4.5 (-115) ★★
Many will point to Buffalo’s injuries, namely Von Miller’s (knee), who had to be carted off last week, as reasons New England has a great chance to win this week. However, the Patriots have plenty of injuries of their own, namely running back Damien Harris (thigh) and receiver Jakobi Meyers (shoulder), two of their best offensive skill players. In addition, New England may again be down two starters on the offensive line, as center David Andrews and tackle Isaiah Wynn both missed the Minnesota game. As a result of those injuries, New England had its second-fewest yards in a game since 2019, and 27 players around the league had more rushing yards than the Patriots did as a team (45) in Week 12.
The only time the Patriots have beaten the Bills in the last five meetings was when gale-force winds rendered each passing game obsolete in Week 13 of last season. Outside of that, Buffalo has won the previous four meetings by a combined 74 points (three by 12-plus), and we look for Josh Allen to improve his record to 5-0 straight up on Thursdays with another big divisional victory.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook with a point spread as low as -4.5, so as Bills backers, laying the extra juice at -115 odds is worth the extra half-point in value we are getting.
Bills vs. Patriots O/U Pick
Over 43.5 (-107) ★★
There is no denying that Allen has been bothered at times by a nagging elbow issue, as he has missed some throws uncharacteristically over the last few weeks that he does not usually miss. However, after New England had allowed 7.7 points per game during a three-game winning streak, its defense was shredded against Minnesota. The Patriots allowed their second-highest completion percentage ever under Bill Belichick (Kirk Cousins completed 81.6% of his passes) and allowed three points per drive. Also uncharacteristic of a Belichick-coached team, New England allowed five first downs via penalty, its most since Week 11 of 2019.
On the other side, New England should be encouraged by one of quarterback Mac Jones’ best games as a professional. He led the Patriots to 409 total yards and 7.4 yards per play, and that has us expecting the Over to cash for the first time in Buffalo’s previous seven road games.
Bills vs. Patriots Prop Pick
McKenzie Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115) ★★★★
It has long been said that Belichick always schemes to take away your best option. In three meetings last year, Belichick’s defense held Stefon Diggs to 14 total catches, one total touchdown, and 60 or fewer yards receiving on two occasions. Thus, we expect this to be another game where Isaiah McKenzie steps up.
The No. 3 receiver is coming off a season-high 96 receiving yards on 10 targets, and his 45 yards and 125 yards in two games against New England last year were his two highest receiving totals of the season. We expect that momentum to carry over into this matchup and will be playing the Over on his receiving yards prop when the number becomes available.
Where to Bet on Bills vs. Patriots Picks
Bills-Patriots picks made 11/29/2022 at 8:01 a.m. ET