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Gabriel Davis of the Buffalo Bills scores a 19-yard touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Gabriel Davis of the Buffalo Bills scores a 19-yard touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images via AFP.

The New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium on Thursday Night Football, and a same-game parlay is a fitting way to enjoy the start of Week 13.

Week 13 of the NFL season starts with an AFC East showdown between the 8-3 Bills and 6-5 Patriots. Buffalo can climb into the top spot in the division with a road victory, whereas a New England win would be instrumental for the Pats remaining in the thick of the playoff race.

Both teams played on Thanksgiving last Thursday with opposite results. The Bills pulled off a 28-25 road victory over the Detroit Lions, and the Patriots lost 33-26 on the road to the Minnesota Vikings.

Here are my same-game parlay picks for the Week 13 matchup between the Bills and Patriots on Thursday Night Football (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bills-Patriots picks and predictions, and our top Josh Allen player props!

Bills vs. Patriots Odds

Bills vs. Patriots Same-Game Parlay Picks

  • Bills -6.5 alternate spread +130 via FanDuel ★★★
  • Gabriel Davis anytime TD scorer +220 via FanDuel ★★★
  • Gabriel Davis 40+ receiving yards -210 via FanDuel ★★★★

FanDuel Parlay Odds: +605

The odds for this same-game parlay are higher via FanDuel. A similar three-leg bet through DraftKings is trading at +600, and Gabriel Davis’ receiving yards total is higher (44.5). FanDuel is also offing the best anytime touchdown number for Davis. The +150 available via BetMGM is the lowest number among our top-rated sportsbooks.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Same-Game Parlay Predictions for Bills vs. Patriots

Bills -6.5 (+130) ★★★

The Bills have topped the Patriots in four of their past five meetings, including three statement victories by a combined 71 points. As a result, I appreciate the longer odds with this alternate spread while also staying below the key number of seven. Additionally, Buffalo’s noted lone loss to New England came in prohibitive wind conditions.

Buffalo remains the top-ranked team in the league by DVOA, and the Bills have also faced the seventh-toughest schedule of opponents. The Bills’ secondary is also healthy for the first time all season with two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White a full participant in practice all week and expected to play an expanded role Thursday. White also helps mitigate the loss of edge rusher Von Miller (knee).

The Patriots will be without offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn (foot), and center David Andrews (thigh) and right tackle Yodny Cajuste (calf) were limited participants in practice all week. Add that running back Damien Harris (thigh) is also set to miss Thursday’s game, and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (shoulder) was unable to practice fully this week, and I expect New England to have trouble keeping pace with the high-scoring Bills. 

Davis anytime TD scorer (+220) ★★★

I’m eyeing the potential for statistical correction for Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis on Thursday Night Football. He’s only found the end zone once through the past five weeks after scoring four times across his first five games of the year. Davis also scored 13 touchdowns across 32 games over his first two seasons in the league. 

Davis’ red-zone efficiency is also down this year. He’s only converted 16.7% of his red-zone targets into touchdowns after recording 10 red-zone scores on 31 targets (32.3%) through his first two seasons. 

The Patriots haven’t been as sound defensively against secondary receivers this season, either. New England ranks 20th in defensive DVOA against No. 2 wideouts this year compared to fifth against the opposition's top target. 

Additionally, New England allowed Minnesota Vikings receiver Adam Thielen to record nine receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown last week. The Pats posted their worst coverage grade of the season since Week 3 against the Vikings, per Pro Football Focus.

Davis Over 40+ receiving yards (-210) ★★★★

Because of Davis’ big-play potential, this is a correlated parlay leg to his anytime touchdown prop. He has three career touchdowns of more than 40 yards, and he added another 75-yard score during the AFC Divisional Round game last postseason.

Bettors can definitely opt to bump up the receiving yards total for a better payout, but I’m more comfortable chasing the touchdown with a lower yardage benchmark. For example, Davis is listed at -118 for 50-plus receiving yards via FanDuel, which would increase the odds of this same-game parlay to +729.

I have Davis projected for 58.6 receiving yards against the Patriots on Thursday. However, he’s only cleared 40 yards twice while averaging 3.8 receptions and 53.4 receiving yards through five games since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye.

Where to Bet on Bills vs. Patriots Same-Game Parlay Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Bills-Patriots same-game parlay picks made 12/1/2022 at 9 a.m. ET.