Josh Allen Prop Picks: Will Allen Run Wild on the Patriots?
Will Josh Allen be able to lead the Buffalo Bills to their first victory of the season over an opponent from the AFC East? Let's examine three Josh Allen prop picks.
Allen was once considered the NFL's MVP front-runner, and he's been under increasing pressure lately. Allen will attempt to reverse that trend during Thursday Night Football, with the Buffalo Bills 3.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots.
We'll need to get creative in how we approach Allen's player props for Thursday Night Football to be successful. The sportsbooks have dropped some really solid lines on Allen's passing props, which reduces the value on either side. No need to be alarmed, as we've found some edges.
Here are my top Josh Allen prop picks for the Bills-Patriots matchup on Thursday Night Football (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Bills vs. Patriots picks and our same-game parlay!
Thursday Night Football Odds
Josh Allen Prop Picks
Josh Allen Prop Predictions
Allen Over 7.5 rushing attempts (+100) ★★★
You surely thought Allen's passing props would be the focus here, not his rushing. The New England Patriots boast one of the NFL's best passing defenses, ranking third in pass defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. We'll see plenty of passing plays that result in Allen rushing due to quality coverage downfield.
With Allen projected to rush the ball a little over eight times on Thursday Night, this prop should be trading closer to -150. Only Caesars offers a plus-money price on 7.5, as DraftKings and BetMGM are listing this prop at -105.
Allen Under 23.5 completions (-120) ★★
Taking the Under on Allen's 23.5 completions on Thursday is a correlated play to the Over on 7.5 rushing attempts. Considering our preference for designed runs and Allen using his legs against a strong Patriots pass defense with a full week to prepare for this game, attacking the Under on one of Allen's passing props is a must.
Price shopping is essential here since all the value is based on one sportsbook, giving us a rogue number. PointsBet is listing a total of 23.5 for Allen's completions prop, with the Under priced at -120. In contrast, BetMGM and Caesars are featuring only 22.5, with the Under juiced even further at -135.
Don't underestimate the difference between these props. The ability to grab the Under on 23.5 (-120) via PointsBet is our edge here. Don't bet on this prop at BetMGM or Caesars.
Allen anytime touchdown (+200) ★★★
I hope Allen runs the ball multiple times at the goal line, and on third down he punches it into the end zone. Allen has scored five rushing touchdowns in 2022, cashing this ticket in four out of 11 games. This prop has hit at a 36.3% clip (+175), and anything above +175 is a price to attack.
You likely won't find Allen trading at +200 to score an anytime touchdown at just any sportsbook. You'll need to go to FanDuel. Caesars features a much shorter price at +140, and DraftKings is sitting at +170.
Check out our Thursday Night Football prop picks
Where to Bet on Josh Allen Prop Picks
Josh Allen prop picks made 12/01/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.
Related Articles
