NFL Best Bets for Week 5: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for Week 5 look to build off of last week’s profitable 3-1 week, including covering our two ATS plays and one total all by at least 9.5 points.

This week’s NFL picks still involve at least one ATS and O/U play, but I mix in more player props in games where I see clear advantages, such as what should be a shootout in the Lions-Cardinals matchup. And for the second straight week, I make my top play in the international game in London while looking to start my Sunday with an early cash.

NFL best bets for Week 5

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 5.

Eagles-Jaguars Under 42.5 (-113 via FanDuel)

Philadelphia was 0-for-12 on third down last week while passing for 68 yards and generating 12 first downs. 

Things won’t get easier for the Eagles long-term after Lane Johnson announced his retirement. Since drafting Johnson, Philadelphia has a .659 win percentage with him, while averaging 137 rush yards per game and a 43% third down percentage. Without him, Philadelphia has just a .375 win percentage while rushing for 115 yards per game and converting 38% of third downs (including playoffs).

Granted, Trevor Lawrence has his best completion percentage, yards per attempt, Total QBR, and most touchdown passes through four games in his career. But he also shouldn’t have to do much against an Eagles offense that could be without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith.

Jets -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Cleveland is one of the most popular sides, at one point attracting 88% of the wagers at BetMGM. Yet, the 3-1 Browns who have extended rest and have tied for their best through four games since the franchise returned to the NFL in 1999 went from +1 to as high as +2.5 against the 1-3 Jets. That suggests heavy respected sharp action is siding with the home favorites.

The forecast in East Rutherford is calling for the potential for heavy rainfall and a 90% chance of rain throughout the game. Thus, I trust Geno Smith to take care of the football, as evidenced by him not throwing an interception in 117 pass attempts (the fourth-longest streak without an interception to start a season in Jets history).

Best NFL player props for Week 5

Carnell Tate anytime touchdown scorer (+400 via FanDuel)

Carnell Tate has yet to turn in any of his 22 receptions for his first career touchdown. But week after week he is developing much greater chemistry with second-year quarterback Cam Ward.

Tate has seen his targets increase every week, paying off in 21 targets over the last two weeks and an overall 30% target share (third-highest among wide receivers). This is an exploitable matchup against the Texans defense, who has allowed the second most receiving yards and touchdowns to wide receivers. 

Tate is also getting more downfield usage. And 26 of his 32 targets have come against zone coverage, while Houston play zone 83% of the time.

Chase Brown Over 65.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365)

Chase Brown is coming off a game where he rushed for 10 yards on nine carries, while adding productivity in the passing game with 11 catches. But with the team on a bye next week, they could take a more cautious approach with bringing back wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin/core) from injuries they suffered last week.

If Burrow is down his top two targets, this could be a steal on a number that would be sure to rise before kickoff, even if Brown is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. A run-heavy approach would also be a smart way to attack a Dolphins defense that ranks in the middle of the league, allowing 109 rushing yards per game. We're already getting a great number, as Brown's O/U is as high as 67.5 at other top sports betting sites.

Michael Wilson Over 72.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365)

Michael Wilson should be the next top wide receiver to step up and take advantage of a battered Lions secondary. Wilson has seen 30 targets in the last two games and leads all wide receivers with a 91.4% route rate. Meanwhile, quarterback Jacoby Brissett has attempted the eighth-most passes in the NFL, while the Lions have allowed the overall most passing yards, third most yards to wide receivers, and third most yards on deep passes to the position.

Wilson saw an NFL-high four red zone targets last week and Detroit has allowed the most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Therefore, I wouldn’t put anyone off his market-best +175 anytime touchdown odds at DraftKings, but this receiving yard total is reasonable since he exceeded it in each of the last two games.