NFL Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 5
Can the Atlanta Falcons move to 5-0 against the spread on the season? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point spread picks for Week 5 based on the early odds and lines.
The Atlanta Falcons are the only undefeated team against the spread this season, covering by an average of 5.0 points per game. In Week 5, the Falcons are catching 9 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Can they push their ATS record to 5-0?
The following is the power rankings of my top point spread picks for Week 5 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Tuesday, Oct. 4 at 9 a.m. ET).
10. Commanders +3 (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook) vs. Titans
Although I almost feel sick when I choose the side with Carson Wentz at quarterback, I believe this line should be closer to Tennessee Titans -2. Don't kid yourself, even though the Titans won over the Indianapolis Colts on the road in Week 4, they still aren't a good football team. In this situation, I favor the Washington Commanders only because we are still able to find the key number of 3 points via DraftKings. Soon, I expect this to be Titans -2.5 across the board. The line of Commanders +3 is disappearing quickly and the value is determined by acquiring the 3 points.
9. 49ers -6.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Panthers
With the San Francisco 49ers playing the Carolina Panthers, I think you have a little human emotion tied to the game that the betting numbers can't properly account for. Panthers head coach Matt Rhule seems to be losing the locker room and quarterback Baker Mayfield is just flat-out awful. You might see an effort from the Panthers that ensures Rhule loses his job, the opposite of a live dog that shows a lot of fight. From Monday to Tuesday, the line moved from Niners -4.5 to -6.5, and I anticipate that the trend will continue. As soon as this reaches Niners -7, I would be less inclined to support this stance, which is why I am buying the -6.5.
8. Packers -8 (-105 via PointsBet) vs. Giants (London)
In Week 4, the Green Bay Packers barely defeated the New England Patriots despite facing a third-string quarterback. I am not going to let this scare me away from the Packers on the spread against the New York Giants. Several sportsbooks have already moved this line to Packers -9.5, so I intend to get in front of any potential moves and buy the Packers at -8. At FanDuel, there is a Packers -7.5 (-112) line available, but mathematically the -8 (-105) at PointsBet is the more advantageous number.
7. Bears +7 (-107 via PointsBet) at Vikings
Even though the Minnesota Vikings are 3-1 on the season, they are not a good team. In terms of overall defensive DVOA, the Vikings rank 26th in the NFL. There is a much smaller gap between the Chicago Bears and the Vikings than you might expect. Although I make the Vikings 5.5-point favorites against the Bears, Chicago is currently available at +7. When I believe that the line will close closer to 6 points, the opportunity to buy the Bears at the key number of 7 points is very appealing.
Check out our top against the spread picks for Week 5.
6. Broncos -3 (-120 via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. Colts
Head coach Frank Reich and QB Matt Ryan are on the hot seat as the Indianapolis Colts may be the worst team in the NFL. On a short week, I do not see how running back Jonathan Taylor will be able to play with an ankle injury. Once Taylor is ruled out of Thursday's game, I expect this line to rise to Broncos -3.5 and perhaps even Broncos -4. It's important to note that these are all key numbers, which is why I will be betting the Broncos as 3-point favorites in anticipation of the coming move.
5. Jaguars -7 (-110 via PointsBet) at Texans
I make the Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5-point favorites against the Houston Texans. Due to this, I am looking to purchase the Jaguars before I have to deal with the hook on the key number of 7 points. As several of the sportsbooks have increased juice on the Jaguars line of -7, we are definitely trending toward the spread moving to Jaguars -7.5.
4. Seahawks +5.5 (-107 via PointsBet) at Saints
I favor the Seattle Seahawks over the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 for a number of reasons. To begin with, I think the Saints being favored by 5.5-points is too high even if quarterback Jameis Winston and running back Alvin Kamara return. Between Monday night and Tuesday morning, the line moved from Saints -4 to Saints -5.5, which indicates Winston will most likely play this week. In contrast, if you buy the Seahawks at +5.5 and Winston is ruled out, the line will begin to move back to Saints -4. In my opinion, there is no risk associated with buying the Seahawks at +5.5 now, only an opportunity to gain a more favorable position on Sunday.
3. Falcons +9 (-107 via PointsBet) at Buccaneers
Despite the Falcons' 4-0 ATS record, I do not believe the markets have properly caught up to the level at which they are playing. We are seeing a +9 available on the Falcons, and this is easily one of my favorite spread picks of the week. I make the Buccaneers a 6-point favorite over the Falcons, so I will gladly take the +9. The Falcons have moved up my power ratings faster than they have for most other people, which is evident in my line.
2. Cowboys +4.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook) at Rams
I think I am more down on the Los Angeles Rams this season than the market, which is evident when I handicap this line. Having said that, I love the Dallas Cowboys catching 4.5-points against the Rams, and I think the Rams are way overpriced on this spread. Based on Football Outsiders' overall team DVOA, the Rams rank 26th, and their offense is not nearly as explosive as many believe. This is easily one of my favorite spreads of the week, and I recommend you buy it as soon as possible. I believe it will move in favor of the Cowboys in the coming days.
1. Browns +3 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Chargers
Prior to Week 4, the Los Angeles Chargers lost several key players, including Rashawn Slater and Joey Bosa. As a result, the spread fluctuated but ultimately did not matter as the Chargers defeated the Texans 34-24. Despite the fact that these injuries did not affect the Chargers in Week 4, I believe that a trip to Cleveland will be the point at which they begin to matter. Although the Browns lost to the Falcons in Week 4, I would not be too down on them. The Falcons are a much better team than most people think and the Browns remain a good team. I strongly favor the 3 points we are getting on the spread because I believe the Browns will win this game outright.
Check out our top NFL upset picks for Week 5.
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