San Jose State vs. San Diego State College Basketball Picks: Can Aztecs Cover at Home?

Can the underdog Spartans stay within the massive point spread on the heels of their first conference win, or will the Aztecs cruise to victory? Read on for our San Jose State-San Diego State picks.

As is typically the case, it is a light Friday slate in college basketball. That being said, there are still some games for bettors to consider. Among them is the lone Mountain West Conference tilt of the evening between the San Jose State Spartans and San Diego State Aztecs.

San Jose State (15-11 ATS, 13-13 O/U) comes into tonight’s in-state showdown with just one conference win. However, that victory did come in the Spartans' last time out. SJSU took down New Mexico by a surprising 16-point margin last Sunday. The win was the eighth on the season overall for San Jose State, seven of which have come at home.

It’s a steep rise up the MWC standings from the Spartans at the bottom to San Diego State (13-11 ATS, 8-16 O/U) in fourth place. Superb defensive play has spearheaded the Aztecs to a 9-4 mark in conference and a 17-7 record on the overall season. That being said, SDSU did drop their most recent contest earlier this week. For the second time this season, the Aztecs were edged out by first-place Boise State in a low-scoring game.

Read on for my college basketball betting picks and predictions for Friday’s matchup between San Jose State and San Diego State (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

San Jose State vs. San Diego State Game Info

Date: Friday, Feb. 25, 11 p.m. ETTV Coverage: FS1Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA

San Jose State vs. San Diego State Odds Analysis

Considering the massive discrepancy in both win-loss records and power ratings between these two teams, oddsmakers fittingly opened San Diego State as a massive 22-point favorite for tonight’s game. Betting action on the point spread has been minimal thus far. Sharps nibbled on the Spartans as a road underdog to drop the consensus line to SDSU -21. The move notably runs contradictory to current public ticket counts which see 56% of bets on the Aztecs.

As for the total, a slightly larger line move has taken place. The original total of 124 has been bet up a full 2.5 points to 126.5. This certainly goes against the surface-level assessment of San Diego State. 16 of the Aztecs’ 24 games played on the season have stayed Under the total.

San Jose State vs San Diego State Picks

San Jose State +21 (-110) ???Over 126.5 (-110) ???

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San Jose State vs San Diego State Predictions

San Jose State +21 (-110)

Look, the records and KenPom rankings of these two MWC foes tell the story. In terms of overall adjusted efficiency margin, San Diego State ranks No. 23 according to KenPom. It’s a long scroll down the page until one finds San Jose State situated at No. 287. 

The Spartans don’t exactly do anything well either. They rank only 229th in offensive efficiency and are an abysmal 310th in defensive efficiency. Junior guard Omari Moore is the only SJSU player averaging in double figures scoring this season with 13 points per game.

With this being the second meeting between the teams this season, we do have one data point to go off of. Somehow, San Jose State lost to the Aztecs by 10 on their home floor despite Moore only scoring 11 points. The Spartans can thank freshman Myron Amey Jr. for that. He dropped 23 points in a breakout performance. It should also be noted that it wasn’t by way of garbage time. SJSU only trailed by six at the half of that Feb. 9 contest.

There are two schools of thought when it comes to betting on the Spartans to cover the massive number tonight. One is that there will be a hangover for a team that just won its first conference game of the season in its 15th attempt. The other is that this will ultimately raise the confidence and level of play for San Jose State. We’ll side with the latter, which also coincides with the market move. 

One final point to consider: only five of the Spartans’ 14 conference losses this season have come by 22 points or more.

Over 126.5 (-110)

When discussing the betting line moves for tonight’s game, we mentioned that 16 of San Diego State’s 24 games this season have gone Under the total. Well, the first matchup against San Jose State was not one of them. The two teams combined for 134 points in that game. Thus, it is not as much of a surprise to see the total growing for tonight’s rematch.

Considering that the Aztecs rank second in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, the fact that SJSU was able to score Over 60 points was a bit surprising. When one breaks that first matchup down and considers that a freshman who averages less than 17 minutes per game accounted for over 33% of the Spartans’ points, it becomes even more improbable. Needless to say, San Jose State will be hard-pressed to duplicate that output this evening.

Five of San Diego State’s last six home games have eclipsed the current total of 126.5. All six of those games ended up as Aztec victories and four of the five that cleared the O/U were decided by double-digits. 

While KenPom only ranks SDSU 167th in offensive efficiency, there is quite clearly a spike in production on that end of the floor when it plays in the friendly confines of Viejas Arena. The fact that they have only lost one home game all season further speaks to this claim.

Matt Bradley is the only SDSU player who averages in double figures scoring this season. The Spartans’ sub-300 ranked defense had no answers for the Aztecs’ top scorer in the first clash as he exploded for 28 points. Playing at home, bettors should anticipate more players getting in on the fun offensively tonight.

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San Jose State-San Diego State picks made 2/25/2022 at 3:52 p.m. ET.