Oregon vs. Creighton Expert Pick, Prediction for Round 2

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: March 23, 2024 4:53 PM EDT • 2 min 39 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The third-seeded Creighton Bluejays clash with the 11th-seeded Oregon Ducks in Round 2 of the Midwest Region on Saturday, as we feature our best Oregon vs. Creighton expert pick and prediction based on the best March Madness odds.

The No. 11 seed Oregon Ducks (24-11) needed to win the Pac-12 Tournament just to secure a spot in this year's NCAA Tournament. Now, after blitzing South Carolina in the first round, they'll try to upend the No. 3 seed Creighton Bluejays (24-9) in Saturday's second-round clash at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, which tips off at 9:40 p.m. ET on TBS.

Creighton enters this game as a 5.5-point favorite and remain among the favorites by the latest March Madness odds and Final Four odds. On the other side, Oregon coach Dana Altman leads his team against the school he coached for 16 years before spending the last 14 in Eugene, where he's built a contender that could pull off the upset Saturday.

As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Oregon vs. Creighton expert pick (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oregon vs. Creighton odds

Oregon (11) vs. Creighton (3) expert pick: Midwest Region

N'Faly Dante Over 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel

If Dante had been healthy for the entire season, Oregon would not be a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But he's healthy now, and that's bad news for the Bluejays.

The Ducks' star senior and former top-15 recruit missed 14 of his team's first 15 games, but he's been a steady force inside since his return in early January. Over his last 18 games, he's averaging 17.5 points on 74.1% shooting while scoring at least 14 points in all but two of those contests.

Dante been virtually unstoppable over his last six games, scoring 20.5 PPG on a ridiculous 86.2% from the floor while clearing this total in five of those six games. That includes a 25-point performance on 12-for-12 shooting in the Pac-12 Tournament final and another 23-point showing in the first round vs. South Carolina.

While the Bluejays boast one of the tallest rotations in the country, they also allow the nation's highest percentage of points on 2-pointers (63%), and they foul at the lowest rate (16%) of any team in the country. That plays right into the hands of Dante (6-foot-11, 230 pounds), who does virtually all of his damage within a few feet of the basket and is hard to stop without heavy contact.

For all of Akron's issues scoring on Thursday, the Zips still shot 50% inside the arc while top scorer and rebounder Enrique Freeman (21 points, 14 rebounds) had a field day inside. This matchup sets up perfectly for Dante to have a similar showing for the underdog Ducks.

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Oregon vs. Creighton spread & Over/Under analysis

Creighton opened as a favorite of anywhere from -5 to -6 against Oregon across our best sports betting sites, and that's where this line rests ahead of Saturday's contest. That comes as KenPom, a major influence for college basketball betting markets, projects this game as a 77-71 win for the Bluejays.

We've also seen some variation in the total, which is dealing anywhere from 145.5 to 146.5 across our best sportsbooks. That's still a few ticks lower than the projection for this game, even with both teams featuring better offenses than defenses on paper.

Oregon vs. Creighton game info

When: Saturday, March 23
Tip-off: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, Pa.
How to watch: TBS

Oregon-Creighton prediction made Friday at 6:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.