Top College Basketball Picks for Friday

Friday brings a small 22-game slate for college hoops. We make our top college basketball picks from the condensed schedule.

Friday, we are backing a home underdog in a rivalry game, a home favorite in a rivalry game, and laying a big home spread with the best overall team in college basketball. 

Here are my top picks for Friday's college basketball schedule (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top College Basketball Picks

Notre Dame vs. Boston College +4 (-104 via FanDuel) ????Iowa vs. Purdue -11.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ????Manhattan vs. Siena -3 (+100 via DraftKings) ???

SEE ALSO: John R. Wooden Award Odds and Picks

College Basketball Predictions

Boston College +4 (-104)

The casual college hoops fan does not realize the magnitude of this rivalry. These two catholic institutions have provided some fantastic battles in both football and basketball, leading to close games and shocking upsets. 

As a result, the underdog covered the spread in six of the last meetings and won three of the last six games outright. 

New Boston College head coach Earl Grant has implemented a slow and deliberate style, with the Eagles ranking 334th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. The Irish are not much faster at 227th. I project this to be a close, low-scoring game putting a premium on the extra four points. 

Notre Dame is currently the third-worst team in all of college basketball at defending the three-ball. The Irish allow opponents to shoot 42.2% from beyond the arc. That will be a welcomed sight for a Boston College team that shoots 37.2% from 3-point range. 

The Eagles are 3-2 against the spread at home, while the Irish failed to cover in their only true road game against a shorthanded Illinois team. I always grab points with a home underdog in a rivalry game, and I will do so with the Eagles on Friday night to start our college basketball picks.

Purdue -11.5 (-110)

Purdue is the best team in the country. The Boilermakers have height, shooting, defense, size, and a great head coach in Matt Painter. Best of all?  

They are fantastic at home against the spread. 

Consider the following win rates ATS under Painter at Mackey Complex. 

142-98-3 (59.2%) overall at home82-59-3 (58.2%) at home vs. Big Ten opponents30-19-1 (61.2%) as a favorite between 10 and 30 pointsCovered five of the last six games vs. Iowa and nine of the last ten

The Hawkeyes have played a soft opening schedule, with their only legitimate challenge coming at Virginia on Monday. While Iowa beat the Cavaliers 75-74, Purdue is significantly better on offense and just as good if not better defensively. 

The Boilermakers will dominate the boards with 7-foot-4 C Zach Edey (16.9 points per game, 7.1 rebounds per game) and 6-foot-10, 255-pound F Trevion Williams (12.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG) presenting difficult matchups for an Iowa team that no longer has C Luke Garza. 

Dynamic Purdue wing Jaden Ivey will give Iowa leading-scorer Keegan Murray (24.6 PPG) his most difficult challenge of the season. I see this being around an eight-point game with five minutes left, and the Boilermakers putting on a late-game run to post another home cover.

Siena -3 (+100)

The Saints have a fantastic home-court advantage in Albany, NY, and Siena has used it to cover the spread in 10 of its last 15 home games for a 66.7% win rate.

Coming off two consecutive MAAC regular-season titles, most thought this would be a “down” year for head coach Carmen Maciariello’s Siena team. While their 2-5 record may not reflect it, the Saints have already played much better than expected against a difficult non-conference schedule. The Saints have played four difficult road games at St. Bonaventure, at Georgetown, at Bucknell, and at Army. They lost in overtime to Bucknell and overcame a 10-point deficit to beat Army by 16 points. 

Manhattan has played only one true road game, and that was a 21-point loss at Old Dominion. The Jaspers failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, can struggle to score, and are one of the country’s worst defensive rebounding teams. 

The three points is a lot to lay between these two MAAC rivals, but the +100 odds make it worth the risk. This line may get bet down closer to one point, but I’m taking Siena with a big home-court advantage to win its MAAC season opener in Albany. Take Siena -3 to finish our college basketball picks for Friday.

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College basketball picks made 12/03/2021 at 6 a.m. ET.