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Keyonte George of the Baylor Bears claps after the college basketball game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Keyonte George of the Baylor Bears claps after the college basketball game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images via AFP.

The Baylor Bears will travel to face the Texas Longhorns in a Big 12 battle on Monday as they return to conference play. Check out below for our Baylor vs. Texas college basketball picks based on the best NCAAB odds.

We paused conference play on Saturday for the Big 12/SEC Challenge, in which the former conference flexed its muscles by going 7-3. But we already knew the Big 12 was the best league in the sport, which is why each one of these conference matchups is must-watch television.

For the Big Monday matchup, Baylor will travel to Austin to face Texas inside the Moody Center. The Bears (16-5, 5-3 Big 12) have won six games in a row, including Saturday’s 67-64 victory over Arkansas.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns (17-3, 6-2 Big 12) lost to Tennessee over the weekend, but there is obviously no shame in that result.

Here is our best Baylor vs. Texas college basketball pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college basketball best bets for Monday and our best March Madness betting sites.

Baylor vs. Texas game info

Date: Monday, Jan. 30, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Moody Center, Austin, TX

Baylor vs. Texas odds

Baylor vs. Texas odds analysis

The spread hasn’t moved much, with Texas sitting as a 3.5-point home favorite after laying 3 on the opening line. It is notable that sportsbooks like Circa and Bookmaker are sitting at 4, which could be a sign of where this line is trending. As of Monday afternoon, 56% of the action sides with the Bears as underdogs.

Though the spread hasn’t moved much, the total opened at 151 and fell throughout the morning to as low as 143.5 but has since ticked up to around 147. The latest line sits at 147.5 or 148, with BetMGM offering the lone 148.5 (Under juiced to -115) in the market. A slight majority of the betting support still leans to the Under.

Entering Monday, Baylor is 10-10-1 against the spread and 11-10 to the Over. Texas is 8-13 ATS and 12-7-2 to the Over.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Baylor vs. Texas pick

Baylor +3.5 (-106 via FanDuel) vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐

Perhaps this spread gets to 4, but we have to make our pick while writing this column. I do see enough value on the Baylor side based on my numbers to bet the road team at 3.5 here, with +3 being the lowest I would go on this pick.

Baylor is lethal on the offensive end, ranking No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency. It is why we were on the Bears against Kansas last week, in which Baylor took a team-high 16 shot attempts out of isolation while hunting mismatches in the win. The Longhorns are even worse in such scenarios, ranking in the 10th percentile in the country by allowing 0.929 points per possession against isolation via the charting at Synergy Sports Technology.

This isn’t the same Texas team we have become accustomed to. The Longhorns rank No. 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is sixth in the conference. Baylor (No. 79 in adjusted defensive efficiency) is the worst in the league on that end of the floor, but few teams can match the firepower of the backcourt trio of Keyontae George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer.

This total opened north of 150, so oddsmakers are expecting points to be scored in Monday's matchup. If this game comes down to who you trust more on offense, it is hard not to like getting more than possession with the Bears.   

Baylor vs. Texas best odds

FanDuel (-106)


Four of our five top-rated sportsbooks are in agreement with the 3.5-point spread, though FanDuel’s vig of -106 is the best offer on the underdog. The four cents might not seem like much, but could eventually matter when betting over the course of a college basketball season.

DraftKings is hanging the worst number on Baylor, though we would still play the +3 if necessary. If the spread got any lower, I’d consider an Over bet as this game should feature plenty of points if Baylor is able to dictate the pace.

Baylor-Texas pick made 1/30/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.

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