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College basketball best bets.
College basketball best bets.

With the Super Bowl two weeks away, college basketball takes center stage on Monday. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Monday based on the top NCAAB odds.

Two of the three games involving ranked teams Monday are Big 12 matchups. Texas hosts Baylor looking to rebound from a loss to Tennessee over the weekend, while Iowa State looks to avoid a bad road loss at Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders have started 0-8 in league play.

Here are our college basketball best bets for Monday (odds via PointsBet, BetRivers, Caesars, and DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Baylor vs. Texas picks to complete your college basketball best bets for Monday!

Monday’s college basketball schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Baylor vs. Texas (-3.5)
  • Iowa State (-1.5) vs. Texas Tech
  • Virginia (-5) vs. Syracuse

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

College basketball best bets for Monday

  • Spread: Texas Tech +1.5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: The Citadel (-140 via PointsBet) vs. Chicago St. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Virginia-Syracuse Over 132.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Alabama State (-132 via BetRivers) vs. Florida A&M ⭐⭐

College basketball top picks

Spread: Texas Tech +1.5 vs. Iowa State (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Iowa State drubbed Texas Tech by 34 points at Hilton Coliseum three weeks ago, marking the Red Raiders’ worst loss this season and second by 11-plus points.

However, this remains a contrarian three-star play as the Cyclones are reeling, having lost three of five and are playing their fourth game in nine days. Iowa State’s defense ranks 10th nationally per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric but is just seventh in league play in effective field-goal percentage defense, which suggests regression is coming.

Texas Tech has a healthier Daniel Batcho and Pop Isaacs for this rematch (both were questionable in the first meeting), which should make all the difference.

The home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings, and we would play this line all the way down to a pick’em.

Moneyline: The Citadel ML vs. Chicago St. (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Citadel features an extremely young roster that ranks 321st in D-I experience and is in the first year under Ed Conroy (he last led the Bulldogs to a winning season in his first stint with the school in 2008-09). Thus, a 4-6 start in an underrated Southern Conference should be thought of optimistically.

Now the Bulldogs play a non-conference game against a Chicago State team that has been one of D-I’s worst programs, winning eight or fewer games in each of the previous eight seasons. Two of the Cougars’ six wins this season have come against non-D-I competition, and they rank 328th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency and offensive-rebounding percentage allowed.

The Citadel has as high as -150 ML odds elsewhere, so PointsBet is where one can find the best value.

Total: Virginia vs. Syracuse Over 132.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Virginia’s 76-57 win over Boston College on the weekend marked the 37th consecutive time it held an opponent under 70 points in an ACC home game. However, on Jan. 7, Syracuse came close to topping that mark, scoring 66 points on the Cavaliers while making 8-of-14 3-point attempts. Virginia was carving up the Syracuse zone in that game and held a 50-27 lead with 14:45 remaining to play before the Orange made a late run.

Usually, Syracuse’s zone is difficult to prepare for on a short turnaround. Still, Tony Bennett’s club has seen it for years in the ACC now, and this is a solid four-stay play considering the Cavaliers carved up the zone for 1.09 points per possession in the first meeting.

The Over is 14-4-1 in Virginia’s last 19 road games, and 12-2 in Syracuse’s last 14 overall. Thus, we are following those trends once again tonight.

Moneyline: Alabama State ML vs. Florida A&M (-132) ⭐⭐

Tony Madlock has Alabama State playing much more methodically after the Hornets ranked in the top 63 in adjusted tempo (per KenPom) the last two seasons under Mo Williams.

Alabama State will not wow you offensively - ranking 342nd and 363rd, respectively, in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. However, it ranks fifth in league play in the former category. It makes opponents grind out offensive possessions, spending the most time for any SWAC team on defense per possession (19.0 seconds).

Thus, the Hornets will be content to play at Florida A&M’s even slower pace (slowest team in the SWAC) and will take advantage of the Rattlers’ generosity as they turn the ball over at the league’s highest rate (25.4%).

BetRivers is one of the only sportsbooks with odds lower than the -140 consensus opening number.

College basketball best bets made 1/30/2023 at 6:16 a.m. ET.

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