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Arkansas State vs. James Madison Prediction, Pick & Odds: Sun Belt Championship

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 11, 2024 5:57 PM EDT • 2 min 57 sec read.

Caleb Fields and Derrian Ford of the Arkansas State Red Wolves celebrate in the 75-63 win against the Louisville Cardinals as we look at our Arkansas State-James Madison predictions.
Caleb Fields and Derrian Ford of the Arkansas State Red Wolves celebrate in the 75-63 win against the Louisville Cardinals. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves clash with the James Madison Dukes in the Sun Belt Final as we make our top Arkansas State-James Madison prediction based on the best college basketball odds.

Freddy Hicks' buzzer-beating jumper secured a 67-65 victory for the Red Wolves over the top-seeded Appalachian State Mountaineers in the semifinals. Despite facing a tough challenge, the second-seeded Dukes managed to secure a 73-68 win over Texas State on Sunday. 

The Dukes won 77-73 in Jonesboro when the teams last met. Who gets the edge on Monday?

To complement our college basketball best bets for Monday and Santa Clara-Saint Mary's prediction, here is our best Arkansas State-James Madison prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

The over has decreased by four points in advance of tipoff, presenting even better value for sports bettors. FanDuel offers another solid Over (150.5) option at -105. 

Arkansas State vs. James Madison prediction

Over 149 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars

The Dukes and Red Wolves boast two of the nation's highest-scoring teams. The Dukes average 84.2 points per game while the Red Wolves are at 79.0. While the Dukes are decent defensively and give up 69.1 points per game, the Red Wolves are coughing up 76.7 per contest.

Those statistics may make this bet seem like a five-star play, but a few elements need to be considered. First, this is each team’s third game in as many days. Second, this is a championship contest with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line. The moment may prove to be too significant for at least one team early, which could cause that squad's shooting to tank.

But even with those potential problems, the Over is still the right play. The Dukes have scored 80-plus points in seven of their last eight games. They haven’t notched fewer than 70 in a game since Jan. 20 against the Marshall Thundering Herd.

The Red Wolves have been a little more inconsistent with their scoring this season, but they’re also the underdogs in this contest. Expect the Dukes to dictate the pace of play.

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Arkansas State vs. James Madison best odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 149Over 150.5Over 149.5Over 149Over 149.5
-112-105-105-110-110

There isn’t much of a range among our best sports betting sites, with three of the five listing the total at 149.5 and Caesars offering 149. FanDuel and BetMGM feature the best price at -105, offering 150.5 and 149.5 totals, respectively. 

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Arkansas State vs. James Madison odds

Arkansas State vs. James Madison odds analysis

The Dukes opened as 6.5-point favorites, but that spread has been dropping to as low as five at a few of our best sportsbooks. However, the public still loves the favorites in this game, with 72% of bettors backing the Dukes against the spread. It’s unlikely this line will drop much lower than where it is now if that public support continues.

The total for this contest opened at 149, the lowest total at our best sports betting apps since odds were released. About 63% of bettors are backing the Over. The Dukes boast the 14th-highest scoring team in the NCAA and the Red Wolves rank 41st. 

Arkansas State vs. James Madison game info

  • When: Monday, March 11 at 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, Fla.
  • How to watch: ESPN

 Arkansas State-James Madison prediction made 3/11/2024 at 10:32 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.