🏀 Thunder vs. Suns Player Props Today: NBA Picks & Best Bets (April 25)
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (hamstring) as they look to take a 3-0 series lead over the Phoenix Suns on Saturday. Tipoff is 3:30 p.m. ET at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix on Peacock.
The market clearly expects Oklahoma City to do well without Williams, listing this team as a 9.5-point favorite. But who will step up for the Thunder? To answer that question, check out my Thunder vs. Suns player props today as part of Saturday's NBA picks and best bets.
🏀 Best Thunder vs. Suns player props today: NBA picks for April 25
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren, C, Thunder | Over 16.5 points (-111 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.9u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ajay Mitchell, G, Thunder | Over 2.5 1Q points (-115 via bet365) | 0.5u -> 0.44u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 1.34 units
💰 Best Thunder vs. Suns prop bet
Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points (-111)
With Williams out for Game 3, Oklahoma City center Chet Holmgren must deliver as the team's No. 2 option. To be honest, Holmgren (17.1 points per game this season) might have already been Shai Gilgeous Alexander's top sidekick.
Not only will Holmgren's usage increase without Williams, but he's fared well in this matchup. In six head-to-head meetings, Holmgren is averaging 18.8 points and has cleared this scoring line four times.
I was surprised to see minimal movement on Holmgren's scoring total after the Williams injury, so give me this Over at -120 or better.
🔥 More Thunder vs. Suns prop picks
Ajay Mitchell Over 2.5 first-quarter points (-115)
Ajay Mitchell should return to Oklahoma City's starting lineup. That's why his scoring total is now trading at 13.5, up from 9.5 in Game 1.
Mitchell is averaging 15.1 points in the 29 games without Williams this season, so there's probably value in his scoring line. However, I prefer to back his first-quarter angle at just 2.5. points. This line closed at 4.5 the last time he started in late March.
Mitchell is averaging 3.7 first-quarter points in the 29 games without Williams, clearing this total in six of his previous nine such contests. Don't be surprised if this Over climbs before tipoff.
🚀 Thunder vs. Suns same-game parlay
Because bet365 doesn't let me parlay any first-quarter props, I've opted to back Mitchell's rebound line instead. He's grabbed 10 rebounds through two games of this Round 1 series. It's a worthwhile sprinkle at +220.
💵 Thunder vs. Suns SGP picks
- Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points (-112)
- Ajay Mitchell Over 3.5 rebounds (-135)
Best odds: +220 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.22u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 28.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-28 | +0.4 units ✅ | 1.5% ✅ |
| Player props | 13-14 | +1.72 units ✅ | 6.8% ✅ |
| Parlays | 2-8 | -0.32 units ❌ | -32.2% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Thunder vs. Suns
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
The real edge in Game 3 comes down to how bettors react to Williams’ injury. His absence may elevate Phoenix’s chances of stealing the game, potentially creating value on Suns player props.
But I’m taking the opposite approach and targeting Oklahoma City players, as this matchup still looks lopsided on paper. We also have a solid sample size of how the Thunder operate without Williams. That’s led me to back familiar options like Holmgren and Mitchell, both of whom are well-positioned to take on larger roles and capitalize on the opportunity.
🚑 Thunder vs. Suns injuries
📺 How to watch Thunder vs. Suns
- Date: Saturday, April 25
- Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: NBC/Peacock
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