🏀 Spurs vs. Thunder Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Game 1
📡 SBR Edge: Fade Holmgren vs. Wemby
My Spurs vs. Thunder player props for Game 1 today feature Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 points (-110). He has put up 10 or fewer points in each of his last three matchups against Victor Wembanyama. My second NBA best bet is Wembanyama Under 24.5 points (-106), as he has scored 22 or fewer in all five of the Spurs' meetings with the Thunder this season.
🏀 Best Spurs vs. Thunder player props: NBA Playoffs Game 1
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds for the playoffs.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 points | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1u -> 1u | Has scored 10 or fewer points in 3 straight meetings vs. Wemby |
| Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 points | -106 via DraftKings | 1.06u -> 1u | Has scored 22 or fewer points in all 5 meetings vs. OKC this season |
Total wagered: 2.16 units | Max profit: 2 units
💰 Best Spurs vs. Thunder prop bet
The Thunder are the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals.
Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 points (-110)
I think we kind of know what Holmgren is at this point: a second or third option on a championship team, while Wembanyama is dominant enough to be a No. 1 option.
As Holmgren plateaus and Wembanyama’s career continues to trend upward, the Thunder center has struggled in recent head-to-head meetings. He has scored 10 or fewer points in each of the last three times he’s faced Wembanyama and is averaging just 13.8 points against him in eight career meetings. BetMGM has his Under 15.5 at -110, but I'd play this up to -130 on the best sports betting sites.
💸 Who will win the Western Conference Finals?
I break down this series in my NBA conference finals predictions.
🔥 More Spurs vs. Thunder prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 points (-106)
I’m not done betting Wembanyama’s Unders after hitting them multiple times - here and here, for example. While he is one of the best all-around players in the league, he’s not yet a consistent scoring threat, going under this line in five of his last seven.
Additionally, this line is too high considering his past performances against the Thunder. He has scored 22 or fewer points in all five of the Spurs’ games against the Thunder this season. Wembanyama Under 24.5 points is -106 at DraftKings, but I'd play this up to -125 on the best sports betting apps.
🏀 More Spurs vs. Thunder predictions
Our LJ Blut backs the Spurs to cover the spread with his NBA play of the day.
🚀 Spurs vs. Thunder same-game parlay
While these bets are negatively correlated, the Spurs don't necessarily need Wembanyama to score a lot of points for them to cover. Wembanyama has posted a median of just 20.5 points in the Spurs' four covers against the Thunder this season. bet365 offers this SGP at +310, while FanDuel offers the same parlay at +257.
💵 Spurs vs. Thunder SGP picks
- Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 points
- Spurs +6.5
Best odds: +310 via bet365 (0.32u -> 1u)
💡 More NBA expert picks
- NBA conference finals predictions
- NBA play of the day: Spurs vs. Thunder
- Spurs vs. Thunder player props
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 184-196-4 | -3.58 units ❌ | -0.9% ❌ |
| Player props | 160-134-4 | -4.88 units ❌ | -1.4% ❌ |
| Parlays | 20-57 | +2.19 units ✅ | 9.5% ✅ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 76-69 | +13.76 units ✅ | 12.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 61-35 | +14.65 units ✅ | 15.5% ✅ |
| Parlays | 12-29 | +1.5 units ✅ | 13% ✅ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Spurs vs. Thunder: NBA Playoffs Game 1 strategy
I’m usually not a fan of analyzing head-to-head stats when two teams play, since rosters change and players’ roles change throughout the season. However, the Spurs’ dominance over the Thunder this season makes me believe that Oklahoma City struggles to contain Wembanyama and win games simultaneously. Wembanyama and Holmgren are two of the best defenders in the league, and while Holmgren probably isn’t good enough defensively to give the Thunder a huge edge in this game, he should be able to somewhat slow down the Spurs forward.
🚑 Spurs vs. Thunder injuries: Game 1
Injury report last updated at 5:07 p.m. ET.
Spurs
- De'Aaron Fox (ankle) - questionable
- Luke Kornet (foot) - questionable
Thunder
- Thomas Sorber (ACL) - out
📺 How to watch Spurs vs. Thunder: West finals - Game 1
- Date: Monday, May 18
- Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
- Spread: Thunder -6.5
- Moneyline: Spurs +200 | Thunder -217
- Total: 221.5
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