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NBA Player Props, Predictions for Saturday: LaVine, Beal, and Murray

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 28, 2023 4:50 PM EST • 3 min 14 sec read.

Zach LaVine of the Chicago Bulls dribbles the ball against RJ Barrett of the New York Knicks.
Zach LaVine of the Chicago Bulls dribbles the ball against RJ Barrett of the New York Knicks. Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images via AFP.

It will be an exciting day in the NBA on Saturday, with eleven games scheduled, including a prime-time matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. Check out Jon Metler's favorite NBA player props for Saturday's games using the latest NBA odds. 

We've been running hot in the assists market for the NBA player props, so there's absolutely no reason to stop attacking it on Saturday. After almost pulling off back-to-back sweeps on Thursday and Friday, vibes are high again in anticipation of Saturday's matchups.

As there are 11 games on the schedule, there are plenty of player props to choose from, and I've narrowed them down to my three favorite bets. Let's get some green check marks before a busy NFL Sunday!

Here are our best NBA player props for Saturday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA best bets for Saturday!

NBA player props for Saturday

  • Zach LaVine Over 3.5 assists vs. Magic (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Bradley Beal Over 4.5 assists vs. Pelicans (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 assists vs. Clippers (+107 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!

NBA player props

Zach LaVine Over 3.5 assists vs. Magic (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The sportsbooks are quite divided on what Zach LaVine's assists total should trade at. Several sportsbooks are trading it at 3.5 with increased juice on the Over, while others are trading it at 4.5 with plus money on the Over. 

Taking advantage of the differences between these lines is the main reason we're betting on the Over for LaVine. Considering that LaVine is projected to have 4.8 assists, the Over 3.5 should trade at -210. 

Though we still have an edge with the Over for 4.5 at +108 via FanDuel, our expected value drops from 18% to 5% when playing this line rather than the Over 3.5 (-135) at DraftKings. By attacking the 3.5 that is floating out there rather than the 4.5, we have a much larger edge. 

Laying -135 is not always the most exciting wager, but when you consider that it should be trading at -210 rather than -135, you can't let this bet pass you by.

Bradley Beal Over 4.5 assists vs. Pelicans (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bradley Beal assists prop has caught my attention in several of his recent games, and I believe Saturday's game against the New Orleans Pelicans is the perfect time for us to finally strike. In his first four games since returning from injury, Beal has exceeded this total only once, which is just the way I like it. 

The fact that Beal has been able to hit the Under on this total in three of his last four games has contributed to the line moving to a point where we're seeing solid value on the Over and should take advantage of it.

The projected number of assists for Beal on Saturday is just over five, which means this total should trade at -185. Based on our projection and price of -185, this wager on Beal has a positive expected value of 24%, earning it a four-star rating.

You have the option of placing this wager with PointsBet, BetMGM, or DraftKings at -110. As FanDuel is at -113 and BetRivers at -120, I do expect this line to move throughout the day.

Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 assists vs. Clippers (+107 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've included Dejounte Murray in my NBA player prop bets several times during this season, and after disappearing for a few weeks, he's back with some value on his assists prop. 

Murray is projected to record 6.6 assists against the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, so the Over 5.5 should trade at -165 instead of +107. It would be wise to place this wager as soon as possible since we're not the only ones eyeing this prop. At FanDuel, Murray has moved from +118 to +106 for Over 5.5 assists. 

Using our price of -165, this bet has the highest expected value of three listed here at 29%, just under my threshold of 30% which would make it a five star wager. 

BetRivers has the best price on Murray's Over 5.5 assists at +107 and I fully expect that all the sportsbooks will be trading this prop at minus money by the time the game begins. It's already down to +100 at PointsBet. 

(As a side note, I would strongly recommend that you open a BetRivers account as soon as possible, especially with the Super Bowl fast approaching. During last year's Super Bowl, I placed a large number of bets with BetRivers due to their excellent prices on prop bets.)

NBA player prop picks made 1/28/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.