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Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on during the first half of a game against the Miami Heat at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/ Getty Images via AFP.
Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on during the first half of a game against the Miami Heat at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/ Getty Images via AFP.

After a brutal start to the season, the Los Angeles Lakers are 8-2 over their last 10 games and are slowly crawling their way back into the Western Conference playoff picture. Anthony Davis has averaged 34.2 points and 15.4 rebounds over that span, and slowing him down will be key for the Cleveland Cavaliers to win this matchup.

Cleveland is a healthy 9-1-1 ATS at home and 8-1-1 as the home favorite. The team has gone 5-0 across its last five home games. Los Angeles has covered in eight of its last 10, but the team is 4-6 on the road this season.

The Lakers lost, 114-100, when they faced Cleveland in Los Angeles on Nov. 3, but LeBron James has been excellent against his former team when playing in Cleveland. In his last three road games against his former team, James has averaged 38.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game while collecting three wins. Can he carry his team to victory once again, or will Cleveland continue its hot run at home?

Here is our best Lakers vs. Cavaliers NBA pick (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Lakers vs. Cavaliers Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022
TV: TNT
Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH

Lakers vs. Cavaliers Odds

Lakers vs. Cavaliers Odds Analysis

The Lakers opened at +4 on the road, but that line has slowly crept up to 5.5. Cleveland saw most of the action and cash at that modest opening, but surprisingly, the bets are evenly divided with the more robust spread. Los Angeles’ moneyline odds have gotten slightly longer to +170 after opening at +155. 

The Lakers are 6-2 straight up against the Cavaliers since LeBron James joined the team in 2018-19, winning all three games in Cleveland. The Lakers are just 4-4 ATS in those eight games, but if the line continues to move up, the Lakers’ spread will be our best bet. Given Cleveland’s strong play at home this season, we’d prefer to take Cleveland on the moneyline and avoid the spread altogether.

The total opened at 224 with a majority of tickets and cash on the Over, but after shifting up to 227, the majority of bets and cash are on the Under. In the first meeting earlier this season, the two teams combined for 224 points. Cleveland will do its best to limit Anthony Davis, and we’d bet on a lower-scoring game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse resulting in an Under.

Lakers vs. Cavaliers Pick

Anthony Davis Under 26.5 points ★★★★

Davis’ superb play has been the catalyst for the Lakers’ recent turnaround, and if Cleveland hopes to win this one, they’ll have to slow down the big man. Fortunately, no team is better suited to limit Davis.

The Cavs sport the NBA’s best defense, allowing just 105 points per game and 103.4 at home, both tops in the Association. Those numbers are even more encouraging when we look at points in the paint surrendered.

Cleveland allows the second-fewest points in the paint at just 45.8 per game, and Davis attempts most of his shots there. AD has taken 368 shots this season, and 262 (71.2% of his attempts) have come from within 10 feet of the basket. Second-year big man Evan Mobley has anchored a strong interior defense, and his frontcourt partner Jarrett Allen has a chance to return from a five-game absence tonight.

Historically, Davis has scored fewer than 26.5 points in 11 of his 16 career games against the Cavs. He’s averaged 21.3 points against the team, which is his sixth-lowest mark against any opponent. Since arriving in Los Angeles, his best scoring performance against Cleveland is just 19 points.

Lakers vs. Cavaliers Best Odds

Davis Under 26.5 points via PointsBet (+105)

SportsbookDraftKingsFanDuelPointsBetCaesarsBetMGM
PropUnder 27.5Under 27.5Under 26.5Under 27.5Under 27.5
Odds-115-122+105-133-125

We’re going with PointsBet for tonight’s prop, and we often gravitate here for spread and totals wagers due to the standard -107 odds used. PointsBet’s player props usually provide a noticeable differential from props on other major sportsbooks, allowing us to get favorable odds by selling a point or two.

The odds aren’t appealing for Davis’ prop at 27.5. Instead, we can go just one point lower for a better payout. Based on historical trends and Cleveland’s strong interior defense, we’d consider this prop if it was set at 25.5, so it makes the most sense to go with PointsBet.

Where to Bet on Lakers vs. Cavaliers

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Lakers vs. Cavaliers picks made 12/6/22 at 11:55 a.m.