Kings vs. Mavericks NBA Picks: Dallas Offense Disappoints

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: October 31, 2021 5:17 AM EDT • 2 min 13 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 26: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks talks with head coach Jason Kidd as the team takes on the Houston Rockets in the second half at American Airlines Center on October 26, 2021 in Dallas, Texas. The Mavericks won 116-106. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Ron Jenkins / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Sacramento Kings are underdogs in Dallas today against the Mavericks. But there's excitement surrounding the Kings given their recent wins over Portland and Phoenix. Read ahead for analysis-driven betting picks on this afternoon's contest.

The Mavericks' blowout loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday puts them at 1-4 against the spread and on the Over. The Kings are 3-2 ATS and the Over is 2-3 in their games.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA matchup between the Kings and the Mavericks. (Odds via DraftKings, FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Kings vs. Mavericks Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 31 at 3:30 p.m. ETTV: N/ALocation: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Kings vs. Mavericks Odds Analysis

Dallas is still favored in games in which it should not be because oddsmakers are slow to adjust to the reality of a new season. The reality is Dallas overachieved under former coach Rick Carlisle. Jason Kidd is now the Mavs' coach and the difference between the two helps explain the Mavericks' current 1-4 ATS skid.

Underdog status is nothing new for the Kings. They've only been favored against the New Orleans Pelicans. Nonetheless, they've won two of their three games as underdogs.

Kings vs. Mavericks Betting Picks

Kings +4.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ????Under 218.5 (-110 via Bet365) ???

Kings vs. Mavericks Predictions

Kings +4.5 (-110) ????

A clear pattern is emerging in terms of who the Mavericks beat or lose to. They've lost to the only playoff teams they've faced - Denver and Atlanta - in non-competitive blowouts. They've defeated the 2-4 San Antonio Spurs, the 1-4 Houston Rockets, and a 4-3 Toronto Raptors team that has recently been surging on offense. Aside from the Raptors, Maverick victims rank in the bottom-half in offensive rating.

Dallas appears to fare better against teams with minimal offensive firepower. The Mavericks simply lack the guns to keep pace with high-octane opponents.

Right now, Dallas owns the third-worst offensive rating and the lowest field-goal percentage of any team. The explanation for this stark offensive regression involves a link between player performance and scheme.

Dallas is posting up more and is showing a stronger inclination to attempt mid-range jump shots. This shot profile signifies a newfound aversion to the 3-point shooting barrage that they tended to use in games last year.

Moreover, this shot profile doesn't suit the players' skill set. Personnel-wise, Dallas is weak in terms of the offensive potential of its centers and forwards. The Mavericks need to attach a tighter offensive leash to those big men. They should instead allow players such as sharpshooter Reggie Bullock to play a stronger role in the offense.

On the other side, Sacramento is a far cry from the offensively inept teams Dallas has slid by. The Kings rank ninth in offensive rating. After investing in this area in recent years, they own a nice arsenal of ball-screen heavy guards that match up well against a Maverick defense ranking 12th-worst in limiting opposing points on this play type.

Under 218.5 (-110) ???

The Under is 4-1 in Dallas' games this season as its currently broken offense is struggling to score points. Bettors should approach Mavericks games looking to play the Under.

Most concerning is the performance of the Mavs' most important player, Luka Doncic. The superstar is 22.4 points per game, his lowest mark since his rookie season. He's also never been as inefficient as he is right now, shooting 41.7 percent from the field and 25.7 percent from three.