Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets Tonight: Expert Picks & Predictions for March 11
With only four games slated for Tuesday, you'd think we couldn't offer our full selection of best NBA player props today. Well, you thought wrong.
We begin the evening with two Overs on point totals for players who are secondary scoring options, and then we conclude with two wagers tied to the Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans game. The latter are both at plus money, including targeting Kawhi Leonard's rebound total.
💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: March 11
Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. player prop pick: Over 9.5 points (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Kuzma player prop pick: Over 14.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kawhi Leonard player prop pick: Over 5.5 rebounds (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Nicolas Batum player prop pick: Over 1.5 assists (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.
🏀 Tim Hardaway Jr. (Pistons) Over 9.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.26)
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Hardaway has fallen off as a scorer since joining the Detroit Pistons this past offseason. He averaged 14.4 points per game last year while mostly coming off the bench. Now, as a full-time starter, he's averaging just 10.4.
However, we've seen Hardaway shooting the ball more lately. He's averaging just 8.5 field-goal attempts for the season, but he's taken at least nine shots in four of his last five games. Now, his efficiency has been in the toilet, resulting in Hardaway going Over this line just twice in those contests, but I expect the shots to fall tonight against the Washington Wizards.
Hardaway is projected to score 11.5 points tonight. Based on that projection, the break-even price for this Over is -164, so I'd play it to around -125 before I leave this one alone.
📊 Tim Hardaway Jr. player prop odds vs. Wizards
🏀 Kyle Kuzma (Bucks) Over 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.52)
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Much like Hardaway, Kuzma isn't thriving with his new team, which he joined ahead of the trade deadline. Once known for his scoring abilities, Kuzma is averaging just 14.8 points per game with the Milwaukee Bucks, and he wasn't faring much better earlier this season before leaving the Wizards.
This is a player who was averaging 20-plus points as recently as last season, though, and he seemed to be heating up toward the end of February before cooling off recently. We'll use this recent lack of scoring as a buy opportunity on his points Over for tonight's game against the Indiana Pacers.
Kuzma is projected to score 16.9 points. Similar to the Hardaway prop, the break-even price for this Over is right around -160, so I'd play this to -125 before I'd leave it alone. Fortunately, BetMGM offers a very good price, as FanDuel is already at -128 and DraftKings moved its line to 15.5.
📊 Kyle Kuzma player prop odds vs. Pacers
🏀 Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) Over 5.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $11)
When it comes to Kawhi, you need to ignore his season-long averages and take a closer look under the hood. Sure, he's averaging only 18.1 points, five rebounds, and 2.8 assists across 22 games this campaign, but much of that is the result of 10 games in January during which he averaged only 24 minutes.
Kawhi is averaging 38 minutes per game in four March contests, and he's averaging 22.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. He's projected to play a similar number of minutes tonight at around 37, and, as a result, he's projected to haul in 6.7 rebounds.
Based on that projection, the break-even price for this Over is -172, the shortest odds of our first three bets of the day. And yet, we're getting plus money on this pick. That should tell you just how much value we're getting.
📊 Kawhi Leonard player prop odds vs. Pelicans
🏀 Nicolas Batum (Clippers) Over 1.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +165 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $16.50)
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The Clippers have inserted Batum into their starting lineup for the last three games, and though that hasn't directly translated to him stuffing the stat sheet, he's averaging 10 more minutes per game, which is why I like this Over.
When it comes to these low assist totals, you basically just want the player to log as many minutes as possible, because the bar to clear is so low that they can accumulate two assists without being an especially prolific passer. I often bet these with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who stinks on offense but plays a ton of minutes for the Orlando Magic due to his defensive prowess and can rack up two assists by swinging it to the player who drains a 3-pointer.
That's what we're doing tonight with Batum, who's projected to play 27 minutes and record just a hair under two assists. That might be below the total he needs to clear this mark, but thanks to these +165 odds, we're getting nearly 50% +EV on this bet. What does that mean in terms of the break-even price? Well, this should be priced closer to -125. You read that right: +165 vs. -125. That's why this is five stars.
📊 Nicolas Batum player prop odds vs. Pelicans
🏀 Best NBA betting sites
Looking to bet on NBA player props tonight? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for tonight's NBA games.
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