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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

We're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Friday based on the best NBA odds, with an eye on Donovan Mitchell to post a gaudy stat line.

There are eight games on the NBA schedule for Friday, and there is no shortage of potential value in the player props market.

After falling to the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, the Charlotte Hornets travel south to face the Houston Rockets. Can rookie Brandon Miller stay hot on the road? The new-look Toronto Raptors will be without Immanuel Quickley, which opens the door for Gary Trent to step up against the visiting Los Angeles Clippers.

Meanwhile, Jonas Valanciunas and the New Orleans Pelicans host the Oklahoma City Thunder. Can the big man stay productive at home? Finally, Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers play Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in a Central Division rivalry matchup that should bring plenty of fireworks.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s NBA best bets

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Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

  • Houston Rockets vs. Charlotte Hornets | Spread: Rockets -5 | Total: 226.5
  • Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks | Spread: Mavericks -1.5 | Total: 243
  • Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers | Spread: Suns -5 | Total: 242.5
  • Los Angeles Clippers vs. Toronto Raptors | Spread: Clippers -7.5 | Total: 224
  • Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans | Spread: Pelicans -2 | Total: 239.5
  • Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks | Spread: Bucks -6 | Total: 238.5
  • Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies | Spread: Magic -5 | Total: 214
  • Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs | Spread: Spurs -2 | Total: 233.5

Friday’s NBA player props

Brandon Miller Over 19.5 points vs. Rockets (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Brandon Miller has been on a tear, and we’re betting on him staying hot at Houston tonight. Miller has scored at least 23 points in four straight, averaging 24.3 points and 3.5 triples on 57.4% shooting in that span. With Terry Rozier gone, there are more shot opportunities and minutes up for grabs, and Miller has taken full advantage.

The Rockets have allowed just 112.7 points per game on the season, but over the last three, they’ve surrendered 126.3, including 137 allowed to the Portland Trail Blazers in an overtime loss on Wednesday. Houston has also allowed the 10th fewest 3-pointers on the season, but it's given up the sixth-most across its last three.

Miller’s points prop opened at 18.5, and it’s fallen to 17.5 with odds juiced to as much as -135. We’ll bet it up to 19.5 for the best plus-money odds at bet365.

Gary Trent Over 12.5 points vs. Clippers (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Trent has regressed as a scorer this season, though it’s due to his decreased playing time and not a huge decline in quality of play. He’s scored at least 13 points in four of the last eight, as his offensive opportunities have grown in the wake of Toronto’s recent trades of OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.

Trent has started each of his last four games, averaging 14 points across 27.8 minutes. Immanuel Quickley has averaged 13.6 field-goal attempts in 31.8 minutes since joining the Raptors. RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes should run the show on Friday, but with Quickley ruled out, Trent should have even more opportunities to succeed as a scorer.

The Clippers have been relatively effective in defending 3-point shooters, as the team allows the 12th fewest-made threes. Over their last three, Los Angeles has allowed the 12th-most, which plays into Trent’s strengths as a long-range shooter. On the season, Trent averages 12.2 points per game at home compared to 10.9 on the road. It’s not a monster difference, but with such a low point total, every basket counts.

Jonas Valanciunas double-double vs. Thunder (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Valanciunas hasn’t logged 30 minutes in a game since Dec. 26, but he hasn’t needed big minutes to remain productive. Over his last 13, the big man has averaged 12.1 points and 9.0 rebounds across 23.2 minutes with six double-doubles to his credit. He’s averaging 14.0 points and 9.6 rebounds on the season, so his recent dip in playing time hasn’t cut into his statistical output significantly.

The Thunder allow the second-most rebounds to opponents, and Valanciunas delivered 19 points and nine rebounds in just 21 minutes against Oklahoma City earlier this season. He’s scored at least 10 points in 33 of 44 contests this season, so we won’t worry about him crossing that threshold, especially in a matchup with a 239.5 total. We’ll take the plus-money odds at DraftKings for this wager.

Donovan Mitchell double-double vs. Bucks (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

It’s usually fireworks when these two teams meet, and Mitchell will need to be at his best if the Cavs hope to defeat Antetokounmpo and Co.

On the season, Mitchell has piled up five double-doubles, including two in his last six games. One of those was his 45-point, 12-rebound performance against the Brooklyn Nets in Paris, and the other was a 25-point, 13-assist game against the Orlando Magic on Tuesday.

Mitchell can reach a double-double through rebounds or assists, making this prop even more attractive. The Bucks are middle-of-the-pack in rebounds and assists allowed, and Mitchell has never had issues scoring the basketball.

In three games against Milwaukee this season, Mitchell has averaged 29.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, which is quite similar to the numbers he’s posted over the aforementioned six-game stretch.

With no Darius Garland or Evan Mobley, Mitchell should continue to excel as a rebounder and facilitator. Role players Georges Niang and Sam Merrill have been hot from beyond the arc as of late, which gives Mitchell two more reliable options to assist. This prop has sneaky upside with juicy, plus-money odds.

NBA best bets made Friday at 7:15 a.m. ET

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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