Xfinity 500 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Last Chance to Advance

Seven drivers will fight for the final three spots in the championship round next week. Find out if we think one will win with our Xfinity 500 odds and picks.

Only two races remain in the 2022 NASCAR season. After this week, the drivers who will compete for the championship in the finale will be finalized.

Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe are all on the outside of the cut line hoping to change that after this week. Just 500 laps around this half-mile track stand in the way of their chance to hoist the Cup Series trophy. 

Here are our picks for the Xfinity 500 based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

Xfinity 500 Race Info

Where: Martinsville Speedway, Martinsville, VA
When: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2 p.m. ET
How to watch: NBC
Defending champion: Alex Bowman

Xfinity 500 Odds

Xfinity 500 Picks

• Denny Hamlin (+800 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
• Kyle Larson (+1300 via Hard Rock)
• Ross Chastain (+1400 via BetMGM)

Who Will Win the Xfinity 500?

Denny Hamlin (+800)

Hamlin has been one of the most consistent drivers on the track since the August race in Daytona. He has logged seven top-10 finishes in his last eight races, including back-to-back runner-up outings at Darlington and Kansas. Thrice in that span, he started well outside the top 20 and managed to find his way to the front of the field at the end.

The No. 11 car hasn’t seen victory lane since the Charlotte oval race in May, and Hamlin sits five points outside of the elimination line entering this week. He will be looking for a win to take any guesswork out of what he will be racing for next week.

Historically, this track has been kind to Hamlin across his 33 career starts. He has 22 top-10 finishes. Of those, 16 have fallen inside the top five, with five of them ending with him waving the checkered flag; however, his FedEx Toyota has struggled here of late. Hamlin finished 24th or worse in three of his last five races on this track, including a 28th-place run in the spring.

Kyle Larson (+1300)

The defending NASCAR champion put on a show last week at Homestead-Miami. Larson led 199 of the 267 laps of the Dixie Vodka 400 and took home a decisive victory. It was the No. 5 car’s third win of the season and first since Watkins Glen. Despite his inability to defend his title, Larson proved last week that he is a threat on any track regardless of his playoff status.

Should he win this week, it will be his first at Martinsville in his 15 starts as a Cup driver. Surprisingly, Larson has only three top-10 and two top-five finishes here with an average finish just outside of 20th place. His best performance was a third-place finish as the pilot of the No. 42 Target Chevy in the spring of 2016. He does have one top-five showing here with the Hendrick team, placing fifth in the spring race of the 2021 season.

Ross Chastain (+1400)

The only way Chastain could have improved the outcome of his last two races was to win them. The No. 1 car came in as the runner-up in both Las Vegas and Homestead. The young Trackhouse driver has again found that spark that saw him grab two checkered flags in a five-race span early in the season. Chastain has logged five top-seven finishes in his last seven races. He’s been knocking at the door and with the championship in sight, expect him to kick it down this week.

Chastain's fifth-place finish in the spring race here represented his best finish in his seven career starts on this track and was also his first in the No. 1 car. His previous races came behind the wheel of the No. 15 and the No. 42. Chastain's best finish in those cars was last spring with a 17th-place day in his Chip Ganassi Chevrolet.

Where to bet on the Xfinity 500

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

Xfinity 500 picks made 10/27/2022 at 5:10 p.m. ET.