🏀 Valkyries vs. Liberty Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, May 21
Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally may both potentially make their season debuts tonight when the New York Liberty host the Golden State Valkyries at 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video) from Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
New York is a 7.5-point favorite at home, and my Valkyries vs. Liberty prediction is backing the WNBA championship odds leaders to show up in a big way, with or without Ionescu and Sabally.
🏀 Valkyries vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty -7.5 (-105 via bet365) | 1u → 0.95u | The Liberty are expected to get Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally back |
| Over 169.5 (-114 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.88u | New York is the best Over team in the W (4-0) |
| Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points (-120 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.83u | Stewart's size is a mismatch and she's averaging 23 PPG |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.66 units
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🏆 Who will win Valkyries vs. Liberty?
Despite being down Ionescu and Sabally to start the season, New York has cruised to a 3-1 record behind a dominant offense. If Ionescu and Sabally are both back alongside Breanna Stewart tonight, Golden State will struggle to keep pace.
Score prediction: Liberty 95, Valkyries 85
💰 Valkyries vs. Liberty prediction & best bet
Liberty -7.5 (-105)
The Liberty haven't missed a beat under new head coach Chris DeMarco, despite dealing with key injuries to start the season. Even without Ionescu and Sabally, New York leads the W in net rating (+14.6) behind a dominant offense led by Stewart.
DeMarco's squad is No. 1 in offensive rating (117.3), effective field-goal percentage (59.8%), and 3-point percentage (46.4%). If either Ionescu or Sabally suits up tonight, Golden State's defense will have its hands full.
While the Valkyries' defense is one of the best, their offense ranks in the bottom four in effective field-goal percentage (47.9%) and rim rate (22.2%).
🔥 Best Valkyries vs. Liberty player prop bet
Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points (-120)
Stewart is still a force in her 11th season in the W, and she's carried the load with Ionescu and Sabally out. The seven-time All-Star leads the league in offensive wRAPM (+4.0) and sits No. 6 in both PPG (23.0) and usage rate (30.7%).
The potential return of Ionescu and Sabally shouldn't hurt Stewart's output either. Golden State's inconsistent perimeter defense should attract extra attention to the Liberty's shooters and clear out the paint for Stewart, whose size is a mismatch for the Valkyries frontcourt.
Stewart has gone for 20-plus points in three off four games this season.
🚀 Valkyries vs. Liberty same-game parlay
New York's offense is the best in the league, and that was before the potential return of Ionescu and Sabally. If they're back in the fold, Golden State will have trouble locking in on New York's three-headed monster of All-Star scorers.
💵 Valkyries vs. Liberty SGP picks
- Liberty -7.5 (-108)
- Over 169.5 (-114)
- Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points (-120)
Best odds: +399 via FanDuel (0.2u -> 0.8u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 8.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-18 | +5.30 units ✅ | 17.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 7-4 | +1.80 units ✅ | 16.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 2-7 | +0.49 units ✅ | 28.9% ✅ |
📊 Live Valkyries vs. Liberty odds
📺 How to watch Valkyries vs. Liberty
- Date: Thursday, May 21
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Barclays Center (Brooklyn)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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