🏀 Sparks vs. Mercury Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, May 21
The Los Angeles Sparks will try to break out of an early-season slump when they take on the Phoenix Mercury tonight at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video) from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix.
Led by WNBA MVP odds contender Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix is a 3-point betting favorite at home, and my Sparks vs. Mercury prediction expects L.A's struggles to continue on the road.
🏀 Sparks vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -3 (-113 via BetRivers) | 1u → 0.88u | The Sparks are the only team in the W yet to cover the spread (0-4) |
| Over 177 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.91u | These teams are a combined 7-2 betting the Over |
| Jovana Nogic Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.91u | Nogic has been a breakout star from behind the arc |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.7 units
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🏆 Who will win Sparks vs. Mercury?
Los Angeles has been a massive disappointment to start the season, with the Sparks' defensive problems from last year continuing into this year. Between Thomas and sharpshooter Jovana Nogic, the Mercury's offense will be too hot to handle for Kelsey Plum and Co.
Score prediction: Mercury 94, Sparks 88
💰 Sparks vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
Mercury -3 (-113)
While the Mercury have gotten off to an uneven start, the Sparks are the perfect team to get into a rhythm against, especially offensively. L.A. has the worst defense in the W, sitting last in defensive rating (121.3) while allowing the highest effective field-goal percentage in the league (58%).
With Thomas running the show, Phoenix ranks top five in offensive rating (109.7), assist rate (65.1%), and turnover rate (14.9%).
The Mercury's clean style of play and ability to get to the charity stripe - No. 2 in free throws per game (27.2) - should help them take advantage of the Sparks' defense.
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🔥 Best Sparks vs. Mercury player prop bet
Jovana Nogic Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-110)
Although Thomas remains the engine for Phoenix, the emergence of Nogic could be a game-changer if the Mercury want to get back to the WNBA Finals. This is the 28-year-old's first season in the W after playing in the Russian Premier League, where she won Serbian Player of the Year twice, and she's had no issues adjusting.
Nogic is hitting the fourth-most 3-pointers per game in the league (3.0) and is the only player taking more than five threes per game and hitting better than 50% from behind the arc.
The Sparks allow the highest 3-point percentage in the league (40.7%) and give up 9.3 per game.
🚀 Sparks vs. Mercury same-game parlay
The Mercury have the offensive talent to expose the Sparks' defense and pressure them on the perimeter. Nogic has looked like a star in her first season in the W and has the 3-point shooting efficiency to shine against L.A.
💵 Sparks vs. Mercury SGP picks
- Mercury -3.5 (-108)
- Over 177.5 (-110)
- Jovana Nogic Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-110)
Best odds: +397 via FanDuel (0.2u -> 0.8u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 8.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-18 | +5.30 units ✅ | 17.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 7-4 | +1.80 units ✅ | 16.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 2-7 | +0.49 units ✅ | 28.9% ✅ |
📊 Live Sparks vs. Mercury odds
📺 How to watch Sparks vs. Mercury
- Date: Thursday, May 21
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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