Mercury vs. Sun Prediction: WNBA Picks for Friday, Aug. 7
I like the home underdog in my Mercury vs. Sun prediction.
With both teams outside the WNBA championship odds playoff picture, I don't believe Phoenix should be a 6.5-point betting favorite. Tipoff from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ION).
🏀 Mercury vs. Sun prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Sun +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1u → 0.91u | The Sun closed as 4.5-point road underdogs against the Mercury a little over two weeks ago, suggesting some value in this spot. |
| Sun Over 21.5 first-quarter points (-108 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.46u | The Sun jumped out to a 26-21 lead in the first quarter of their win over the Mercury on July 17. |
| Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (-102 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.98u | Alyssa Thomas has produced 42 potential assists in the two games playing alongside Kelsey Plum. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.35 units
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🏆 Who will win Mercury vs. Sun?
I predict the Mercury to win by four points against the Sun on Friday. This feels like a sleepy spot for the visitors, who have yet to play a home game since trading for Kelsey Plum. They are in the middle of a five-game road trip, posting a 7-10 clip away from home. Connecticut can keep things close tonight.
Score prediction: Mercury 88, Sun 84
💰 Mercury vs. Sun prediction & best bet
Sun +6.5 (-110)
I project a couple of points of value on the spread, as it seems the market has inflated Phoenix's power rating since trading for Kelsey Plum.
These two teams faced off twice in Phoenix a little over two weeks ago. The Mercury closed as 4.5-point home favorites in both meetings, with the Sun earning an outright win once.
As such, I'm surprised to see the spread climb two points, especially since Connecticut is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.
🔥 Best Mercury vs. Sun player prop bet
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (-102)
Assist props and triple-double tickets are back on the menu for Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas.
In the two games with Kelsey Plum in the lineup, Thomas has recorded 42 potential assists. She's dished 19 dimes in those two contests. Phoenix's inverted pick-and-rolls with Thomas and Plum could be a thing of beauty.
The Sun are sixth in assists allowed, but they let Thomas dish 11 dimes in the last head-to-head meeting. I like the -102 value on her to clear 8.5 assists and don't mind the +500 price tag on her triple-double odds as well.
🚀 Mercury vs. Sun same-game parlay
I'm a bit surprised to see that a Mercury vs. Sun parlay has a payout of only +475 at FanDuel, given that these legs aren't that correlated. That said, Connecticut keeping things close could improve Thomas' chances of clearing her assist line. If the Sun start strong and stay within striking distance, this game script could make a lot of sense.
💵 Mercury vs. Sun SGP picks
- Sun +6.5 (-112)
- Sun 1Q Over 21.5 (-110)
- Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (-102)
Best odds: +475 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.47u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 80-103-1 | +7.14 units ✅ | 5.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 29-19 | +8.75 units ✅ | 18.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 5-40 | -2.18 units ❌ | -48.4% ❌ |
📊 Live Mercury vs. Sun odds
📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Sun
- Date: Friday, Aug. 7
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Mohegan Sun Arena (Uncasville, Conn.)
- TV: ION
- Streaming: WNBA League Pass
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