Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction: Game 1 WNBA Playoffs First Round Odds, Picks (Sept. 27)
My Liberty vs. Lynx prediction breaks down a rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals ahead of Sunday's Game 1 in this first-round series, with tipoff from Target Center in Minneapolis set for 2 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Lynx face a real test in the first round as the favorite in the WNBA championship odds, seeking revenge after their 2024 loss. Minnesota is a 6.5-point betting favorite against a talented No. 8 seed.
🏀 Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Game 1
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Liberty +6.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
| Over 2.5 games in Round 1 series (+100 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 1 unit |
| Olivia Miles Under 1.5 3-pointers (-132 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.76 units |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: +2.71 units
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🏆 Who will win Liberty vs. Lynx?
I project the Lynx to win Game 1 of their first-round series against the Liberty by three points. After being the team with the best home-court advantage last year, Minnesota went 15-7 in the Target Center this season. The Lynx's +8.7 home net rating ranked fourth in the league. They have the upper hand in a game that could come down to the wire.
Score prediction: Lynx 88, Liberty 85
💰 Liberty vs. Lynx prediction & best bet
Liberty +6.5 (-105)
I'm backing the Liberty as underdogs in Game 1, as they aren't a typical No. 8 seed. New York was the preseason championship favorite.
The Lynx, meanwhile, faded down the stretch. They lost four of their past six games, including a 93-81 loss to the Liberty on Sept. 18.
New York has the defensive personnel to make life difficult for rookie guard Olivia Miles and Napheesa Collier. The Liberty were never more than 5.5-point underdogs in the regular season against the Lynx.
🔥 Best Liberty vs. Lynx player prop bet
Olivia Miles Under 1.5 3-pointers (-132)
Olivia Miles could struggle in her playoff debut, especially after missing the final two games of the regular season due to a calf injury. Plus, the Liberty are well equipped to slow Miles down.
According to Props Madness, the Liberty rank fourth in defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers. Their drop coverage leaves the mid-range open, but the Liberty typically run opponents off the 3-point line.
Miles has only cleared this 3-point line in one of her three head-to-head meetings with New York. She's also failed to clear this line in four straight contests.
🚀 Liberty vs. Lynx same-game parlay
I'm trusting the underdogs in the first game of the 2026 playoffs, so I'm counting on a simple game script on Sunday. I need the Liberty to keep Miles in check. But that won't be enough for New York to push Minnesota, so I've added Breanna Stewart's alternate scoring line. Stewart scored 24 or more points in both wins over the Lynx this year.
💵 Liberty vs. Lynx SGP picks
- Liberty +6.5 (-108)
- Olivia Miles Under 1.5 3-pointers (-132)
- Breanna Stewart 20-plus points (-196)
Best odds: +283 via FanDuel (0.1 units to win 0.28 units)
📊 Live Liberty vs. Lynx odds
📺 How to watch Liberty vs. Lynx
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
- Tipoff: 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Target Center (Minneapolis)
- TV: ABC
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