Sky vs. Liberty WNBA Playoffs Game 3 Picks: Take Advantage of Low Chicago Total
Thanks to a mistake by oddsmakers at a particular sportsbook, bettors can bet on Tuesday’s win-or-go-home playoff game between the Chicago Sky and New York Liberty with extreme confidence. Here are our Sky-Liberty picks.
The stakes don’t get much higher than a win-or-go-home playoff game. That is exactly what WNBA fans have in store for them on Tuesday as the Sky meet the Liberty in a decisive Game 3 matchup.
The second-seed Sky (18-19-1 against the spread, 20-17-1 Over/Under) responded to an upset in Game 1 in a resounding fashion. Despite a great deal of the betting action going against them, the Sky cruised to a 38-point victory in Game 2. Now, the defending champs will be forced to win a decisive Game 3 on the road to advance.
For the No. 7-seed Liberty (19-18-1 ATS, 18-20 O/U), it will be critical to put Saturday’s blowout loss behind them. By winning the series opener, the Liberty had already ensured the opportunity to host a decisive Game 3 on their home floor. New York may not have the same caliber of depth as the reigning champs, but coach Sandy Brondello has consistently gotten the most out of her players this season.
Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Tuesday’s elimination game between the Sky and Liberty (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sky vs. Liberty Game Info
Date/Time: Tuesday, Aug. 23, 9 p.m. ET
Coverage: ESPN
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Sky vs. Liberty Odds Analysis
For the third straight game in this First Round series, the Sky are priced as a sizeable favorite. Oddsmakers first opened the spread at Sky -6.5. Since then, a number of sportsbooks have actually moved the line up to an even 7-point spread.
It is interesting to note the disparity in ticket counts as opposed to the handle on this game at DraftKings. At the time of writing, 72% of all bets have opted to lay seven points with Chicago against the spread. However, the majority of the handle wagered (75%) has come in on New York plus the points.
As far as the total is concerned, the consensus opening number of 167.5 has dipped two full points across the betting market. Several sportsbooks have adjusted the total odds even further to an even 165.
Sky vs. Liberty Picks
Sky vs. Liberty ATS Pick
Liberty +7.5 (-110) ★★
Maybe the best advice for bettors with regard to Tuesday’s win-or-go-home showdown is to steer clear of betting the spread altogether. However, if you must have action on a side, it never hurts to obtain premier market value.
Prior to Saturday's Game 2, the final margin of victory in each of the last four Sky-Liberty matchups had been within eight points. With the series now heading to Barclays Center, the spread has been adjusted two points in New York’s favor. Based on how the two regular-season meetings in Brooklyn went, that adjustment is not large enough. Both contests were decided by a single possession with each team winning once.
Although it can be intimidating to bet on the Liberty given how bad they looked in Game 2, a bounce-back performance is quite likely on Tuesday. The pressure still remains firmly fixed on the defending champion Sky, plus the combination of New York playing at home and with house money as a decisive underdog could prove quite dangerous.
From a personnel standpoint, bettors are strongly advised to keep tabs on Chicago’s leading scorer, Kahleah Copper. While it would be a huge surprise if she were to be ruled out of Game 3 entirely, she is listed on the injury report as questionable with an ankle injury.
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Sky vs. Liberty O/U Pick
Over 165.5 (-110) ★★★
The first two games of this series saw the odds shift in favor of the Over. The opposite has transpired across the market ahead of Tuesday’s Game 3. With the current consensus now two full points below where bookmakers first opened the total, buying back on the Over is preferred.
Unless you're assuming that Tuesday’s contest will be a blowout, betting on the Over is the way to align with recent outcomes. Of the six times the Sky and Liberty have squared off this season (including this series), four games have been decided by eight points or less. Of those four contests, three surpassed the closing total.
It’s important to note that both teams shot below their season average from the field in that one outlier. It’s also worth considering the defensive struggles that the Sky have had dating back to the final weeks of the regular season. Even if Copper is at less than 100%, Chicago is so deep and versatile offensively that lockdown defense is not necessarily vital to winning.
One could argue that the offensive talent is also superior to the level of team defense on both sides of this matchup. The Liberty counter Chicago’s Candace Parker, Emma Meeseman, and Courtney Vandersloot with Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard.
Unless both sides have an underwhelming shooting game, the Over seems to be the correct side to play.
Sky vs. Liberty Prop Bet
Sky Over 80.5 (-275) ★★★★★
Sports betting is all about finding value. Sometimes, said value appears simply because a sportsbook falls asleep at the wheel. That is precisely the case with the team total for Tuesday's Game 3.
In a nutshell, BetMGM has the Sky and Liberty’s team total lines reversed! While Chicago is currently laying 6.5 at BetMGM, it is New York who has a team total prop line six points greater than its opponent. Just to confirm this error, note that each of FanDuel, DraftKings and PointsBet list the Sky’s team total at 86.5 and the Liberty’s at 79.5.
Now, where things get even more confusing is that the accompanying prices on these team totals make sense. As far as choosing which to bet, -275 odds on Chicago to exceed 80.5 points is that much more profitable than -350 on New York to stay under 86.5.
Need more analysis than a faulty line to hop in on this game prop? Well, note that the Sky averaged 86.3 points per game this season while leading the WNBA in field goal percentage (48.1%). In six previous head-to-head meetings against the Liberty (including this series), Chicago has surpassed this total five times. In four of those games, they scored 88 plus!
The only time the Sky fell short saw them score exactly 80 points in a narrow loss while shooting over 10 percentage points below their season average from the floor. They were also playing without their primary distributor in Vandersloot on that night.
Where to Bet on Sky vs. Liberty
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
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Sky-Liberty picks made 8/23/2022 at 2:52 p.m. ET
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