Monterrey Open Final: Camila Osorio vs. Leylah Fernandez Picks

Leylah Fernandez captured her first career WTA title one year ago in Monterrey, and now she finds herself in the final yet again, looking for her second victory. Check out our Osorio-Fernandez picks.

At just 19 years old, Fernandez has already established herself as one of the toughest outs on the WTA Tour and earned plenty of fans along the way. She notably reached the US Open final last season, which came only months after her first career title in Monterrey. After a 1-2 start to the year, which included a disappointing first-round loss at the Australian Open, Fernandez has once again found her form at a familiar site.

Camila Osorio is a very formidable opponent and just a year older than Fernandez. She’s done well to rebound from a season-opening loss in the first round of the Australian Open to Naomi Osaka, reeling off six wins in her last seven matches.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s Monterrey Open final between Camila Osorio and Leylah Fernandez (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Osorio vs. Fernandez Match Info

Date/Time: Sunday, March 6, 5:30 p.m. ETTV: Tennis ChannelLocation: Monterrey, Mexico

Osorio vs. Fernandez Odds Analysis

Fernandez opened up around -215 to -220, and the money quickly flowed in on the young Canadian. Some books like PointsBet are still offering Fernandez under -300 at -295, while most have gone over the -300 threshold. She’s a whopping -320 to win the match at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Osorio vs. Fernandez Picks

Leylah Fernandez -1.5 Sets (-115) ????Fernandez 1st Set -2.5 (+120) ?????

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Osorio vs. Fernandez Predictions

Fernandez -1.5 Sets (-115)

The Canadian has been playing out of her mind for most of this week. With the exception of her match against Qinwen Zheng, who's a very strong opponent, she hasn’t dropped a set. In fact, she’s won six of the nine sets she’s played by a break or more, and she’s made fast starts in all of her matches.

The lefty’s ability to find short angles and redirect pace makes her a real force on these quick courts in Monterrey. It’s no surprise she’s found success here yet again, and she should win in straight sets yet again.

Osorio can hit a big ball and find lines, and she’s done well to get to this point in the tournament by hitting through her opponents. She’s also showcased some resiliency, taking out one of the most in-form players, top-10 talent Elina Svitolina. Svitolina donated some costly errors in that match, though.

Fernandez has been especially strong when playing with the lead, and she won't let up if she takes an early break.

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Fernandez 1st Set -2.5 (+120)

This is my favorite way to get in on Fernandez. She’s taken the opening set in all four of her wins, and with the exception of her straight-set victory over Qiang Wang, she did so by four games or more.

If Fernandez serves first, I’d probably double down on this bet. The potential for an early break opens the door for a 6-3 set. She limits the errors and works the ball around the court with her calm groundstrokes when she plays with the lead.

Osorio also gets out of the gate slowly, which makes me an even bigger fan of this.

Where to Bet on Tennis Picks

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Osorio-Fernandez picks made on 3/6/22 at 1:21 p.m. ET.