M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Betting Preview: Back Young Guns at the Tricky Triangle

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Tricky Triangle. With just six races remaining before the playoffs, who else can lock themselves into the race for a championship? Find out with our M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 picks.

Pocono Raceway is the only triangle-shaped track in NASCAR. The 2.5-mile, flat-banked track most closely mirrors the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval course, but now that NASCAR races on the road course circuit, Pocono lacks a true comparison.

That said, flat tracks are nothing unique on the NASCAR schedule. Last weekend’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway took place on a flat oval, as did June's event at Gateway Motorsports Park. I’m honing in on those two flat ovals, alongside two longer tracks - Auto Club Speedway and the Circuit of the Americas - to find the best picks for this weekend's race.

Here are my outright picks for NASCAR’s M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Odds

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M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Odds Analysis

Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott enter the weekend as the two favorites. Both drivers have odds from +700 to +800 across most sportsbooks. Six-time Pocono winner Denny Hamlin slots in around +800 to +850. Last week’s winner, Christopher Bell, has odds ranging from +1500 to +1800.

Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr., both of whom still need a win to clinch playoff spots, sit at +1000 or better. Alex Bowman, who won one of the two Pocono races last year, finds himself at +2000 at every major book.

M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Picks

Ryan Blaney (+1200 via Caesars) ????William Byron (+1200 via FanDuel) ????Tyler Reddick (+2500 via DraftKings) ???

Who Will Win the M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400?

Blaney (+1200)

Blaney earned his first-ever Cup Series win at Pocono Raceway. He did so by holding off Kevin Harvick. Though Blaney is yet to return to victory lane in the Poconos, he needs a win now more than ever, and we’re getting him at a bit of a discount following his dismal performance at New Hampshire.

The 28-year-old phenom finished sixth and fifth in last year’s double-header at Pocono. He didn’t lead a lap in either race, but he kept his car up front and in contention. Further, he owns the third-best average finish this season at 12.2 and has led the sixth-most laps. 

Blaney has led at all but one of our comparison tracks this season. He finished sixth or better in two of those races, too. He may need some good fortune to help him win, but the No. 12 team should make some aggressive decisions to help their driver secure a playoff spot. With Blaney at +1000 on most books, head to Caesars for the best value.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Byron (+1200)

I love targeting Byron this weekend. Although the 24-year-old star is yet to win at Pocono, he owns an impressive average finishing position of 9.1 here. He owns two top-fives and five top-10s in just eight starts. He led laps in both of last year’s Pocono races and even won a stage in the second event.

Unlike Blaney, Byron doesn’t have as much pressure to win. Still, he has a resume that suggests he could dominate this event. He won his lone Truck Series start here and led 44 of 60 laps. He also won his lone Xfinity Series start at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval and led 26 of 100 laps in that event. He beat out Joey Logano and Kyle Busch to win that race, and only the latter led more laps than him.

Byron has led the second-most laps in the Gen 7 car. His performance has waned of late, but I think we can catch the books sleeping by taking him at +1200. BetMGM and Caesars have smartly set this line at just +1000.

Reddick (+2500)

When Reddick announced he's leaving Richard Childress Racing at the end of 2023, he undoubtedly burned some bridges within the organization. But we’ve seen lame-duck drivers win before, and I’m not going to fade Reddick just because he now has beef with Pop Pop.

Reddick finished 11th and ninth in last year’s Pocono races. He finished ninth and second here in his two Xfinity Series starts. Those results don’t jump off the page, but it’s Reddick’s performances at comparator tracks that point to value. He finished fifth at Circuit of the Americas and led almost half the race at Auto Club before getting trapped a lap down.

Further, despite his win at Road America, Reddick hasn’t secured a playoff spot. He ranks just 16th in points, which puts him ahead of only one single-race winner, Chase Briscoe. He could lock up a spot with a second victory. The pressure is there for Reddick to win this race, and odds of +2500 feel quite long for a driver with the eighth-most laps led in the Gen 7 car.

Where to Bet M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 picks made 7/20/2022 at 1:04 p.m. ET