Mexico Open at Vidanta Odds, Picks, and PGA Tour Preview: Rahm Expected to Lap Watered-Down Field

Picks and preview for the PGA Tour's Mexico Open 2022. Don't miss out! SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

Esten McLaren

Last Updated: April 27, 2022 5:16 AM EDT • 6 minute read

The top U.S. sportsbooks are projecting Jon Rahm to run away with the inaugural Mexico Open at Vidanta as the top name in a weak field. We look for value in the odds with our best Mexico Open picks.

Amid a busy PGA Tour schedule, top players need to pick and choose their weeks off. A lot have chosen this week with the 2022 PGA Championship just three weeks away. That leaves Jon Rahm, who enters the week at No. 2 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) as the runaway consensus favorite to win the first-ever Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Rahm is the top player in the field by the world rankings. Abraham Ancer of Mexico, No. 20, and Tony Finau (No. 25) as the only other players from the top 25 in the 144-man field. Daniel Berger, No. 23, withdrew early Monday afternoon.

Here are my top outright picks for the 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta in Villarta, Mexico.

Mexico Open Odds

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Mexico Open Odds Analysis

Rahm’s implied win probability ranges from 16.67% at Caesars Sportsbook to 22.22% at DraftKings Sportsbook. Those are numbers reminiscent of Tiger Woods’ prime when he would be priced to win against the field. The $350 return on a $100 wager is laughable. Despite Rahm’s stats as the highest-ranked golfer in the field, he hasn’t won since the 2021 U.S. Open and comes off a T-27 finish at the 2022 Masters.

Other than having Rahm as the favorite, there’s little to no consistency in the odds among our top-rated sportsbooks. The odds on Ancer dropped after Berger’s early withdrawal, but the second-best golfer in the field by the measure of the OWGR is still a value play at +2000 while priced as low as +1500 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

This week highlights the importance of having more than one sportsbook from which to choose and being sure to shop around for the best odds on every golfer you intend to bet on. Mexico native Carlos Ortiz, the winner of the 2020 Vivint Houston Open, is offered as high as +10000 at DraftKings and as low as +5000 at FanDuel and Caesars.

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Vidanta Vallarta Course Profile

Vidanta Vallarta was designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2015. The par-71, 7,456-yard venue will play host to the PGA Tour for the first time.

The fairways are quite attackable with little trouble off the tees except for the most erratic of tee shots. Approach shots will be extremely important with most greens well guarded by deep and imposing sand bunkers. The greens themselves are comprised of Paspalum grass, which generally helps to level the playing field on the putting surfaces.

The par 5s range from 548 to 637 yards with two extending beyond 600 yards. Two of the five par 3s are longer than 200 yards with three others between 170 and 195 yards. Six of the nine par 4s are longer than 450 yards with the seventh hole coming in at just 297 yards.

Other courses designed by Norman include El Camaleon de Mayakoba (World Wide Technology Championship) and TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open).

Mexico Open Key Stats

Tailoring our key stats this week to the course profile in the absence of any course history or strokes gained data, we’ll focus on:

Strokes gained: approachDriving distanceSand save percentageBirdies or better gainedPar 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards

What we want for a winner is a long-hitter with a strong approach game. Among the field leaders in both SG: approach and SG: off-the-tee are Rahm, Finau, and Aaron Wise.

Line shopping is the most important factor this week. Removing Rahm from the equation due to the low reward accompanying any bet on the week’s top-ranked golfer, this field is wide open.

Mexico Open Picks

Tony Finau (+2500 via DraftKings)Russell Knox (+7000 via DraftKings)Carlos Ortiz (+10000 via DraftKings)Ryan Armour (+17500 via Caesars)

Who Will Win the Mexico Open?

Finau (+2500)

Finau is now the No. 3 player in the field following the withdrawal of Berger. He reached a career of No. 9 in the OWGR after winning The Northern Trust in August, but he has fallen to No. 25 entering this week without a top-10 finish through his 10 international events played to begin 2022. Still, Finau has begun to show some improvement. He tied for 29th at the Valero Texas Open and for 35th at the Masters.

Finau's now averaging 0.66 SG: approach and 0.46 SG: off-the-tee per round for the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. His play around the greens has been lacking, as has his bunker play, but he's ranked inside the top 80 on the PGA Tour in driving distance, birdie or better percentage, and par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards.

This course isn't nearly as punitive as the others where Finau has struggled of late. The Paspalum greens will also help negate his usual disadvantage with the flat stick.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here.

Knox (+7000)

Russell Knox at +7000 is my favorite play of the week. The Scotsman is averaging 0.56 SG: approach and 0.28 SG: off-the-tee per round for the season, and he'll be capable of the strong winds that help defend against low scores at this venue. Though he's outside of the top 135 in driving distance at an average of 293.8 yards, we can trust in his strong iron play at the second-shot course.

His missed cut two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage was his first in eight events since The American Express in late January. The 36-year-old is just under six years removed from his most recent PGA Tour victory, but he defeated a strong field in the then-European Tour's Dubai Duty Free Irish Open in 2018.

Ortiz (+10000)

Ancer is the top-ranked Mexican national in the field this week but Ortiz is No. 2 among his countrymen while ranked 90th in the OWGR. He has missed the cut in four straight events and in five of the eight in which he has participated this year, but he was the runner-up at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba in the fall.

That strong result in his home country and on a Norman-designed course, make him very appealing at +10000 in this field. Ortiz is gaining strokes both on approach and off the tee. He's 45th in driving distance, 42nd in birdie or better percentage, and T-71 in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards.

Armour (+17500)

We're adding a fourth pick and shooting for the moon with this weak Mexico Open field. Removing Rahm's implied win probability, which we're fading, leaves the other 143 golfers with a share of a 73.78% chance to win. Ryan Armour deserves a larger share of that than his 0.57% implied odds at Caesars.

The 46-year-old hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2017, but he has a top finish this year of T-15 at the Corales Puntacana Championship through his five events played. His three top-10 finishes last year each came against similarly weak, or stronger fields.

Armour is gaining strokes on approach and off the tee this season. His short game has been a detriment, but he's tied for 20th in sand save percentage. He's also first on the PGA Tour in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards. There's excellent value at Caesars for a strong course fit.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Mexico Open picks made on 4/25/2022 at 5 p.m. ET.

Written by:
Esten McLaren

Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for SportsbookReview.com. He has been in the sports betting industry since the legalization of mobile sports betting in New Jersey, and with SportsbookReview prior to the launch of sports betting in Ontario. Esten's previous stops include the USA TODAY network, including GolfWeek. He previously worked in the fantasy sports industry, with FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and USA TODAY. Esten graduated from the College of Sports Media with a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting after acquiring a degree in Biological Sciences from the University of Guelph. He has appeared on FNTSY Sports Network, VSiN, and VSiN's Long Shots podcast, where he correctly called Will Zalatoris as the winner of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Esten is a big proponent of the entertainment side of sports betting and loves to dip his toes into the novelty and alt-markets while chasing long shots with reduced wagers on golf outrights and futures markets. He's also been known to sprinkle some lunch money on touchdown-scorer parlays with two notable hits still funding his bankroll. Esten looks at sports betting much like golf and advises beginner bettors to compete against themselves rather than being concerned with what others may or may not be doing based on social media claims.